닫기
216.73.216.28
216.73.216.28
close menu
KCI 등재
우리나라 15개 다목적댐 유역별 A1B 기후변화 시나리오 분석
Analysis of A1B Climate Change Scenario in the Watersheds of 15 Multi-purpose Dams in South Korea
김홍래 ( Hong Rae Kim ) , 이혜숙 ( Hye Suk Yi ) , 신재기 ( Jae Ki Shin )
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2012-560-002192865

This study analyzed the A1B climate change scenario provided by National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR), Korea, to investigate potential climate changes in watersheds of 15 multi-purpose dams in South Korea. The A1B climate change scenario is produced by Regional Climate Model (RCM) with 27 km horizontal grid spacings using a one-way nesting technique with Global Climate Model (GCM). Relative to present climate conditions (1971~2000), the modeled 10-year averaged daily temperatures at the watersheds of the 15 multi-purpose dams continuously increased to year 2100, whereas precipitation changes were varied regionally (north, central, and south regions of South Korea). At two watersheds located in Gangwon-province (north region), the modeled temporal variations of precipitation rapidly increased in the 2090`s after a slow decrease that had occurred since the 2050`s. At seven watersheds in the central region, including Gyeongsangbuk-province to Jeollanam-province, the modeled temporal variations of precipitation increase showed 10-year periodic changes. At six watersheds in the south region, the modeled temporal variations of precipitation increased since the 2070`s after a rapid decrease in the 2060`s. Compared to the climate conditions of the late of 20th century (1971~2000), the number of rainy days and precipitation intensity increased (3% and 6~12%, respectively) in the late 21st century (2071~2100). The frequency of precipitation events tended to increase with precipitation intensity in all regions. The frequency of heavy precipitation events (>50 mm d-1) increased with >100% in the north region, 60~100% in the central region, and 20~60% in the south region.

[자료제공 : 네이버학술정보]
×