18.97.14.82
18.97.14.82
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무역수지와 환율의 변이성 : 한국의 경우
Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Balance for Korea
모수원(Soo Won Mo),조우길(Woo Kil Cho)
UCI I410-ECN-0102-2009-320-006307867

In this paper, we investigate GARCH and ARCH models to examine the relationship between nominal exchange rate volatility and trade balances. We find that the ARCH(GARCH) conditional variance has a statistically significant impact on the trade balance. This study also provides an empirical overview of the trade account and Korean won-dollar exchange rate using integer and fractional cointegration approach. The analysis of fractional cointegration which integrates the notions of cointegration and of fractional differencing allows the equilibrium error to follow a fractionally integrated process and avoids the stringent Ⅰ(1) and Ⅰ(0) distinction maintained in previous empirical work. This paper shows that all the fractional estimates of d not only lie between 0 and 1, but are greater than 0, suggesting a mean-reverting bahaviors.

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