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한국경제학회> The Korean Economic Review> Impact of Longevity Risks on the Korean Government: Proposing a New Mortality Forecasting Model

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Impact of Longevity Risks on the Korean Government: Proposing a New Mortality Forecasting Model

Yongok Choi
  • : 한국경제학회
  • : The Korean Economic Review 36권1호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2020년 01월
  • : 201-225(25pages)

DOI


목차

I. Introduction
II. Life Expectancy Increase in Korea
III. Modeling Mortality Improvements
IV. Evaluation of Longevity Risks for Korean Government
V. Conclusions and Policy Implications
Appendix
References

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초록 보기


						
Korea’s life expectancy has experienced an unprecedented rapid increase that is significantly higher than that in other advanced economies. However, this phenomenon also signifies that the Korean government faces a considerable financial risk. This study identifies the factors that contribute to the overestimation of mortality and develops a new mortality forecasting model. In addition, the population projections of the new mortality forecasts are used to quantitatively measure the economic size of the longevity risks faced by the Korean government. Results suggest that if substantial longevity exposure is realized in the context of the Korean government, the longevity can solely increase the debt-to-GDP ratio by 33.8%p by 2060. Drawing on these findings, this study concludes with suggestions to mitigate such longevity risks.

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  • : 사회과학분야  > 경제학
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  • : 0254-3737
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  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1985-2020
  • : 623


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초록보기

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