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한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis> Building a Peace Regime on the Korean Peninsula and the Future of UNC

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Building a Peace Regime on the Korean Peninsula and the Future of UNC

Kyung-young Chung
  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권4호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2019년 12월
  • : 477-500(24pages)

DOI


목차

Introduction
The Inter-Korean Dialogues and Lessons Learned
Path Forward: Peace Regime Initiative
Revitalization of UNC and Implications
A Desirable Future of UNC after a Peace Treaty
Conclusion and Policy Recommendation
Notes

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초록 보기


						
This study aims to develop a strategy for building a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula and to explore a desirable future of the United Nations Command (UNC) in the event that the Korean Peninsula peace treaty is signed. The study draws lessons learned from the inter-Korean dialogues and proposes a peace regime initiative consisting of North Korea denuclearization, transition of wartime operational control, a security regime in Northeast Asia and a peace treaty. There is a controversial debate regarding the dissolution or continuing presence of the UNC after a peace treaty. This article proposes the twenty nations involved to reorganize the UNC to consist of the UN Security Council P+5, the two Koreas, and thirteen nations as member states of the UNC in order to play a supervisory role in a peace treaty through the transformation of the Demilitarized Zone to a peace zone. The article makes a policy recommendation related to the UNC Reorganization Roadmap. The first phase is to consult with the United States on the future of the UNC after a peace treaty in the event of substantial progress of North Korea’s denuclearization. In addition, the ROK-U.S. should discuss and agree to the command relations between the Future Combined forces Command and the UNC in terms of armistice, wartime and contingency plans in the event of the transition of wartime operational control. The second phase is to recuperate the Military Armistice Commission (MAC), Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission (NNSC) and consult with the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on the reorganization of the UNC for the Korean Peninsula peace treaty. The third phase is to reactivate the reorganized UNC in a supervisory role for a peace treaty.

UCI(KEPA)

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI,SCOPUS
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
  • :
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1989-2020
  • : 820


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1Building a Peace Regime on the Korean Peninsula and the Future of UNC

저자 : Kyung-young Chung

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권 4호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 477-500 (24 pages)

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This study aims to develop a strategy for building a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula and to explore a desirable future of the United Nations Command (UNC) in the event that the Korean Peninsula peace treaty is signed. The study draws lessons learned from the inter-Korean dialogues and proposes a peace regime initiative consisting of North Korea denuclearization, transition of wartime operational control, a security regime in Northeast Asia and a peace treaty. There is a controversial debate regarding the dissolution or continuing presence of the UNC after a peace treaty. This article proposes the twenty nations involved to reorganize the UNC to consist of the UN Security Council P+5, the two Koreas, and thirteen nations as member states of the UNC in order to play a supervisory role in a peace treaty through the transformation of the Demilitarized Zone to a peace zone. The article makes a policy recommendation related to the UNC Reorganization Roadmap. The first phase is to consult with the United States on the future of the UNC after a peace treaty in the event of substantial progress of North Korea's denuclearization. In addition, the ROK-U.S. should discuss and agree to the command relations between the Future Combined forces Command and the UNC in terms of armistice, wartime and contingency plans in the event of the transition of wartime operational control. The second phase is to recuperate the Military Armistice Commission (MAC), Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission (NNSC) and consult with the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) on the reorganization of the UNC for the Korean Peninsula peace treaty. The third phase is to reactivate the reorganized UNC in a supervisory role for a peace treaty.

2PLA Reforms as Seen from the Composition of the Central Military Commission of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China

저자 : Ying Yu Lin

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권 4호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 501-517 (17 pages)

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Following the most recent round of military reforms launched in 2016, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), from the highest to the lowest echelons, has been moving in the direction dictated by President Xi Jinping. The major concern of the PLA, however, is the membership of the Central Military Commission (CMC). The list of candidates for the CMC of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) was not decided until the first plenary session of the Central Committee of the CPC after the 19th National Congress. The CMC retains its one chairman and two vice chairmen leadership structure, but only the chiefs of the Joint Staff Department and Political Work Department, the Minister of National Defense and the head of the Commission for Discipline Inspection are granted a seat in the CMC. As compared with the 18th CMC, the 19th CMC has fewer members. The decrease in the number of CMC members represents a change in the command structure of the PLA. From a hierarchical perspective, each level of command has its political and professional significance, also tasked with different missions. All levels work together to manage the PLA, the world's largest military force. From the change in the composition of the CMC, the selection of candidates for CMC membership, the qualifications of the candidates in terms of grade and rank, and their functions, this study seeks to find out the impact of the 19th CMC members and newly-appointed theater commands' and the services' commanding generals and admirals on the PLA reforms as well as the implications thereof.

3What Factors Determine China's North Korea Policy?: Uncertainty, Instability and Status Quo Risk Management

저자 : Kihyun Lee

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권 4호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 519-538 (20 pages)

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China's North Korea policy is a combination of China's strategic goal toward regional order including U.S.-China relations and tactical management over North Korea's crisis action. Since the post-Cold War era, China has preferred the status quo as its regional strategy, which leads them to operate tactical management over North Korea risk. North Korea risk consists of uncertainty, which means uncontrollability of North Korea, and instability, which means the possibility of collapse of the North Korean regime. These risks often play as a crisis of China's status quo strategy, so China is inclined to implement its North Korea Policy to control these crises. The basis of China' North Korea policy is engagement, considering that China has to protect North Korea's conventional and geopolitical values. However, the engagement comes in different forms according to the characteristics of the crisis. The one is coercive engagement, which appears when North Korea's uncertainty prevails over instability. The other one is inclusive engagement, which occurs when North Korea's instability is stronger than uncertainty. This hypothesis can be applied to past and current situations. With this point of view, it is possible to predict the future of China's North Korea policy.

4Resetting the South Korea-China Relationship: The THAAD Controversies and Their Aftermath

저자 : Sukhee Han

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권 4호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 539-557 (19 pages)

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Despite 25 years of unprecedentedly friendly ties between South Korea and China, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) disputes and China's ensuing sanctions against South Korea have forced the bilateral relationship into an unprecedented standoff. Given South Korea's growing dependence on China in economic and North Korean affairs, commentators always assumed that the South Korean government would “manage” this relationship. China has maintained a close relationship to keep South Korea within its orbit, restraining Seoul from further efforts to strengthen the U.S.-South Korean alliance. However, the Park Geun-hye government's decision to respond to North Korea's incessant provocations by deploying the THAAD system in South Korea caused China to implement economic retaliation. The ensuing paralysis of bilateral relations has lasted for over a year. A key problem for the future of the bilateral relationship is the fact that both countries have lost trust in each other. China views South Korea's decision to deploy THAAD as a betrayal of its support, while South Korea objects to China's relentless economic bullying. Consequently, post-THAAD South Korea- China relations are likely to reflect South Korea's efforts to reduce its dependency on China and to manage its development in a more balanced way.

5Russia's Arctic Policy: Focusing on the Construction of the Arctic Route and its Challenges

저자 : Jiwon Yun

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권 4호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 559-574 (16 pages)

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The greatest change resulting from the Arctic thaw is the activation of Arctic resource development and the development of Arctic ports. In this regard, Arctic governance and Arctic regimes arising from climate change, global warming, resource development, Arctic Route, logistics, maritime boundary delimitation, environmental and biodiversity conservation and sustainable development are underway, and the activities of the Arctic Council (AC). Russia is now investing funds in a comprehensive approach to the collection of information on waterways, hydro-meteorology and maps and the strengthening of safety measures for the prevention of oil spills. In light of this, Russia has proceeded with long-term use and development of the Northern Sea Route despite the constraints of the Arctic environment and conditions. It is also calling for government cooperation with business entities in the development of a nuclear-powered icebreaker fleet. In particular, Russia has played the most active role in Arctic development such as resource development and military base construction with a focus on icebreakers. In this context, the main purpose of this article is to examine sustainable Arctic development policies focusing on the characteristics of Arctic policies and the status of Arctic ports and railway and road networks under Vladimir Putin's presidency.

6Assessing the Effectiveness of Security Assurances on the DPRK's Nuclear Issue

저자 : Yi Ding , Dingli Shen

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권 4호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 575-593 (19 pages)

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In the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)'s case of nuclear proliferation, less attention has been paid to the role of security assurances. This paper seeks to assess the role of security assurances for the DPRK provided by the UN, the Soviet Union, China, and the United States and to figure out why these assurances are less effective to bridle its nuclear ambition. It argues that an effective security assurance for nuclear non-proliferation should meet at least two conditions. Firstly the security assurance should be credible, which can be realized by being publicized, legally binding, and infusing with further commitments. Secondly, the security assurance tailored to the unique features of the target state's concerns is more likely to be effective. Using this set of criteria, the only moderately effective assurance is that provided by the Soviet Union. The general security assurance of the UN is neither legally binding nor specifically targeted. The alliance with China exists only on paper as Pyongyang believes Beijing is reluctant to fulfill its obligation as an ally. The United States is taking a capricious attitude on the DPRK and none of its security assurances are legalized or address its major concern of regime survival. These may help explain why security assurances failed to prevent the DPRK from acquiring nuclear weapons.

7The Dilemma of the “Axis of Evil”: The Rise and Fall of Iran-DPRK Relations

저자 : Lyong Choi , Jong-dae Shin , Han-hyung Lee

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권 4호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 595-611 (17 pages)

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This research examines the international relations between North Korea (the Democratic People's Republic of Korea or DPRK) and Iran in the context of their shared perception of a threat from the United States. We discuss the conventional idea of the international relationship―the enemy of my enemy is my ally―to explain Pyongyang-Tehran relations, evaluate its past and current relations, and offer policy suggestions for the recent denuclearization approach toward North Korea and Iran. Using newly discovered archival resources and political records, we challenge the conventional idea that the two states share the same threat perception in a consistent manner and suggest the level of their military cooperation changes depending on the approach from Washington and the international community. This research provides a more exact picture of the international relations North Korea and Iran since the 1980s and of the link between their shared threat perception and denuclearization debates.

8Russian Naval Activity in the Asia-Pacific: The Herald for a New Alliance?

저자 : Andrei S. Golobokov

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권 4호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 613-633 (21 pages)

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The paper evaluates Russia's increased naval presence in the Asian-Pacific region, considering the naval interactions with China, India, Vietnam, the Philippines etc., an important component of Russia's national strategy and maritime policy in the region. By strengthening cooperation with the navies of these countries in different parts of the world, Moscow demonstrates its political preferences and military capabilities by checking the combat readiness of its own Navy, as well as modernizing its strategy and tactics, taking into account the modern experience of combat operations among the other fleets. It then presents a valuable opportunity for Russia to defend its national interests while remaining a non-aligned and predictable actor. By analyzing the dynamics, metrics and substance of Russia's naval activities, the author tries to clarify the strategic goals of the Russian and other countries' navies, and also to define some qualitative characteristics, such as the level of interaction between the Russian Navy and each of its partners, operational tasks of the exercises, etc. In addition, Russia's joint maneuvers not only maintain its status as a great maritime power and raises its international authority but also may serve as a balancing factor for the U.S. and Chinese navies to improve the security situation in the Asia-Pacific.

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