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한국경제학회> The Korean Economic Review> CO2 Emissions, Foreign Direct Investments, Energy Consumption, and GDP in Developing Countries: A More Comprehensive Study using Panel Vector Error Correction Model

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CO2 Emissions, Foreign Direct Investments, Energy Consumption, and GDP in Developing Countries: A More Comprehensive Study using Panel Vector Error Correction Model

Suyi Kim
  • : 한국경제학회
  • : The Korean Economic Review 35권1호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2019년 01월
  • : 5-24(20pages)

DOI


목차

I. Introduction
II. Empirical Model
III. Data
IV. Empirical Findings
V. Conclusions
Appendix
References

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초록 보기


						
This paper examines the causal relationships among carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), and foreign direct investments (FDI) in 57 developing countries from 1980 to 2013. The results of the analysis based on panel vector error correction model (VECM) indicate no direct short-run causality exists from FDI to CO2 emissions. These results are also confirmed by regional analysis, wherein the developing countries are divided into three regions. In the long run, a cointegrated relationship is found among CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, and FDI, which supports the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. However, the long-run elasticity of FDI on CO2 emissions is very small even though it is statistically significant. These results do not support the pollution haven hypothesis of CO2 emissions through inward FDI in developing countries.

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  • : 사회과학분야  > 경제학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI,SCOPUS
  • : 반년간
  • : 0254-3737
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  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1985-2019
  • : 614


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This paper examines the causal relationships among carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, energy consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), and foreign direct investments (FDI) in 57 developing countries from 1980 to 2013. The results of the analysis based on panel vector error correction model (VECM) indicate no direct short-run causality exists from FDI to CO2 emissions. These results are also confirmed by regional analysis, wherein the developing countries are divided into three regions. In the long run, a cointegrated relationship is found among CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, and FDI, which supports the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. However, the long-run elasticity of FDI on CO2 emissions is very small even though it is statistically significant. These results do not support the pollution haven hypothesis of CO2 emissions through inward FDI in developing countries.

2Reassessing the Inflows and Outflows of Unemployment in Korea

저자 : Jong-suk Han , Jiwoon Kim

발행기관 : 한국경제학회 간행물 : The Korean Economic Review 35권 1호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 25-59 (35 pages)

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Using data from the Economically Active Population Survey from 1986 to 2014, we comprehensively examine Korean unemployment dynamics using worker flows: inflow rates and outflow rates. We estimate both flow rates by carefully correcting for time aggregation bias, and quantify the contribution of changes in each flow rate to unemployment variability through steady-state and non-steady-state decompositions. Our baseline analysis reports the average of inflow rates as 1.6% and that of outflow rates as 48%. Moreover, despite the small size of the inflow rates, inflows account for 90% of unemployment variability. The significant contribution of inflows to unemployment fluctuation still appears even under a three-state model that includes inactive workers and heterogeneous flow rates by reasons for unemployment. The large contribution of inflows to unemployment changes despite high outflow rates is a unique feature of the Korean labor market not seen in previous studies of OECD countries.

3Optimal Partial and Full Disability Insurance with an Application to Korea

저자 : Kyung-woo Lee

발행기관 : 한국경제학회 간행물 : The Korean Economic Review 35권 1호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 61-107 (47 pages)

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In this paper, I investigate the optimal disability insurance (DI) when partial and full disability are privately observed over the life cycle. I demonstrate that in the social optimum, partially disabled agents are induced to supply labor despite substantial government transfers unless labor supply is relatively elastic and their productivity is significantly reduced. I then apply the framework to quantitatively evaluate Korea's DI programs, which include partial and full disability benefits. In the calibrated model, I find that welfare gains from replacing Korea's DI programs with the corresponding optimal system amount to a 1.17% increase in consumption. Such a reform significantly raises the utility of both types of disabled agents at relatively small utility costs of able agents. Equity gains from this redistribution account for 73.4% of the total welfare gains, whereas efficiency gains from the optimal allocation account for 26.6%.

4Repeated Games with Asymptotically Finite Horizon and Imperfect Public Monitoring

저자 : Yves Gueron

발행기관 : 한국경제학회 간행물 : The Korean Economic Review 35권 1호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 109-123 (15 pages)

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We consider a two-player infinitely repeated game with asymptotically finite horizons: discount factors converge to zero over time. The stage-game has a continuum of actions and a unique and interior Nash equilibrium. It is known that when players perfectly observe each other's actions, cooperation can be achieved and equilibrium payoffs can be strictly higher than the stage-game equilibrium payoff. We show that introducing an arbitrarily small amount of smooth noise in the monitoring makes cooperation impossible and players play the static Nash equilibrium of the stage-game forever.

5Two-Dimensional Self-Selection of Borrowers

저자 : Sung Hyun Kim

발행기관 : 한국경제학회 간행물 : The Korean Economic Review 35권 1호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 125-161 (37 pages)

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The multi-dimensional heterogeneity of agents can provide interesting insights. To illustrate this point in the loan market context, we examine the borrowers' decision to switch from a variable rate loan to a fixed rate loan, using a model of two-dimensional borrower types (risk aversion and riskiness). Among high risk borrowers, more risk averse ones are selected out of the loan market and less risk averse ones are not tempted by the fixed rate loan. Switchers are more risk averse but have lower default risk. The Financial Services Commission's 2015 Mortgage Refinancing Program in Korea is discussed under our model's framework.

6Export Subsidies and Least Developed Countries: An Entry-Deterrence Model under Complete and Incomplete Information

저자 : Kyoungwon Rhee , Moonsung Kang

발행기관 : 한국경제학회 간행물 : The Korean Economic Review 35권 1호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 163-182 (20 pages)

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To explore the export subsidy policies in technologically inferior countries, we consider an entry-deterrence model in which firms compete á la Bertrand if entry occurs. Under complete information, only a subsidy policy can deter entry. We also check whether a “no subsidy” policy can deter entry under incomplete information, in which the existence of an export subsidy policy is assumed to be unknown to the foreign firm. In the separating equilibria, it is optimal for the government not to provide export subsidies because they are financially burdensome given the technological inferiority of the domestic firm being subsidized. However, in the pooling equilibria, under certain conditions, even the firm that does not benefit from a subsidy policy can deter the entry of a more technologically advanced firm, thereby granting an incentive for the government to employ a policy of strategic ambiguity in order to prevent the disclosure of information about its export subsidies.

7Long Memory Volatility, Central Bank Intervention and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity in the 1920s Exchange Markets

저자 : Richard T. Baillie , Young Wook Han

발행기관 : 한국경제학회 간행물 : The Korean Economic Review 35권 1호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 183-203 (21 pages)

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The 1920s exchange markets represent one of the earliest recorded periods of freely floating exchange rates and central bank interventions. This paper uses a set of daily exchange rate data in the 1920s for three currencies (French Franc, Belgium Franc and Italy Lira) against the British Pound, and finds the exchange rate returns have the widespread long memory volatility property that is consistent with the post Bretton Woods era. And, this paper quantifies the duration of the effectiveness of the heavy intervention by the Bank of France on three exchange rates. The intervention is found to have direct effects on the French franc spot rate, but not on market volatility. There is also some evidence that the intervention had moderate influence on the deviation from the uncovered interest rate parity in the exchange markets by Granger causing the excess returns which may be associated with a time dependent risk premium.

8Tests for Detecting Probability Mass Points

저자 : Byung-hill Jun , Hosin Song

발행기관 : 한국경제학회 간행물 : The Korean Economic Review 35권 1호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 205-248 (44 pages)

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The objective of this paper is developing test statistics to detect the presence of mass points when data are possibly generated by a mixture of a continuous and a discrete distribution. To serve our purpose we propose two versions of the probability mass point (PMP) test. We derive the limiting distributions of the PMP test statistics under the null and alternative hypothesis by exploiting the asymptotic difference between two kernel density estimators with different bandwidths. Specifically, the proposed PMP test statistic is shown to converge to either the standard normal distribution or a linear transformation of a positive Poisson distribution at a non-mass point depending on bandwidths choice, while it diverges to infinity at a mass point. Numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the validity of our proposed tests. Korean taxpayers' bunching behavior is considered as an empirical application.

9Cheap Talk by Two Senders in the Presence of Network Externalities

저자 : Jeahan Jung , Jeong-yoo Kim

발행기관 : 한국경제학회 간행물 : The Korean Economic Review 35권 1호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 249-274 (26 pages)

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We develop a model of cheap talk with two senders in the presence of network externalities, such that their utility functions are increasing in the network size. We first show that, if there is no noise in the private information received by each sender, the full information is revealed by the harshest cross-checking strategies, that is, strategies to punish the senders unless their messages exactly coincide. Then, we prove that, even with a small noise, cross-checking strategies cannot induce full revelation if the utility functions of senders are linear in the network size, whereas full revelation is possible if utility functions are strictly concave. Finally, we show that a CARA (constant absolute risk aversion) utility function of senders is the necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a fully revealing equilibrium, which is supported by the cross-checking strategy with a positive confidence interval independent of each sender's private information.

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