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한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis> Terrorism`s Place in South Korean Grand Strategy

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Terrorism`s Place in South Korean Grand Strategy

Robert E. Kelly
  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권3호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2017년 09월
  • : 409-428(20pages)

DOI


목차

Introduction
Terrorism in Korean National Security Strategy
Defining Terrorism, and the North Korea Problem
South Korea`s History of Terrorism
Vulnerabilities
Conclusion
Notes
Notes on Contributor

키워드 보기


초록 보기

If one understands North Korea`s provocations as terrorism rather than irregular warfare, then terrorism is arguably a chronic national security threat to South Korea. Similarly, the modernization of South Korea has put its citizens, corporations, and soldiers out into the world and raised their exposure to traditional non-state (Islamic, nationalist, and so on) terrorism. Yet South Korea`s two national security strategies to date scarcely touch on the issue, while Korea`s foremost security journal, the Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, has only published a handful of articles on the topic. Hence, this article seeks to place terrorism more coherently within South Korea`s growing grand strategy debate. It argues that Northern provocations fit within post-9/11 thinking about terrorism, and that South Koreans are targets of opportunity in the current salafist terror wave due to their alliance with America, Protestant evangelization overseas, and status as Buddhists, Confucians, or Christians in jihadists` “clash of civilizations” mindset. Terrorism event counts against South Koreans, including fatalities, are quantitatively presented. The totals are low, so the threat, while new, is middling, not existential. South Korea need not overreact as America arguably did to 9/11. Policies such as moderate homeland security measures, distance from expansive U.S. goals in the war on terror, and a wariness of Middle Eastern engagements are recommended.

ECN

I410-ECN-0102-2018-300-000712629


UCI

I410-ECN-0102-2018-300-000712629

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI 등재
  • : - / SSCI / SCOPUS
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
  • :
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1989-2018
  • : 765


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1Assessing Export Controls of Strategic Items to North Korea

저자 : Jina Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권 3호 발행 연도 : 2017 페이지 : pp. 331-348 (18 pages)

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This paper aims to show trading patterns of certain items highly likely to be used to develop nuclear and missile programs in North Korea. It analyzed North Korea`s trade of nuclear―and missile―related items for ten years from 2006 to 2015 to identify items in large volume as well as in increased demand and key suppliers that contribute to sanctions―busting. This paper found that UN sanctions against North Korea were not effective in controlling the flow of strategic items to North Korea. Rather, a small number of states are responsible for a large share of trade with North Korea that has continued to seek alternative suppliers. It also found that China is a single supplier for multiple items and plays a major role along with several others that either specialize in exports of specific items or gradually expand the scope of supplies. Because the presence of a third country that provides North Korea`s resilience and diversion of sanctions is crucial, this paper recommends policy suggestions to enhance effectiveness of the existing sanctions regime.

2North Korea`s Nuclear and Missile Threat: Recalibration of Policy Measures

저자 : Jiyong Ryu , Dongmin Lee

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권 3호 발행 연도 : 2017 페이지 : pp. 349-369 (21 pages)

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Despite the unceasing efforts of the international community to halt North Korea`s nuclear ambitions, North Korea`s nuclear development and missile technology have aggressively progressed over time. Why did the efforts fail and what would be the new direction to fix the problem, if necessary? To answer these central questions, this paper attempts to analyze the problems of sanctions on North Korea and assess North Korea`s nuclear development and capability. This paper suggests that a recalibration of policy measures, including a dual-track strategy that, on the one hand leads to internal change in the North, while on the other, results in strong external pressure, continues to be significant for the ultimate resolution of North Korea`s nuclear quandaries. If left alone, the nuclear situation in North Korea may likely shift from the previously limited problem of denuclearization on the Korean peninsula to the broader global concern of nonproliferation.

3How Not To Be Abandoned by China: North Korea`s Nuclear Brinkmanship Revisited

저자 : Hongseo Park , Jae Jeok Park

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권 3호 발행 연도 : 2017 페이지 : pp. 371-387 (17 pages)

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Whatever motivations lie behind North Korea`s nuclear and missile programs, North Korea has been aware that further nuclear and missile tests would incur increasingly harsh international sanctions. In order to survive the sanctions, North Korea needs to entrap China to its side, for the North Korean economy is highly dependent upon China. In this context, this article argues that North Korea intentionally increases the level of its nuclear and missile threat in order to entrap China (thus, reducing its fear of being abandoned by China). That is, North Korea has elaborated its coercive diplomacy in order to press China to show a strong commitment to their mutual alliance. In order to develop the above argument, this article proceeds as follows. First, as an analytical framework, it applies Glenn Snyder`s concept of the linkage between the alliance game and adversary game to the trilateral relationship among the United States (along with South Korea), China and North Korea. Second, it provides an overview of Sino-North Korean relations from 2006 up to the present, attempting to analyze North Korea`s brinkmanship. Thirdly, it concludes with some policy implications for future trilateral relations, one of which is that China should seriously discuss North Korea contingency plans with the United States and South Korea in order to develop an effective strategy to curb North Korea`s military adventurism. Paradoxically, this would lead to North Korea`s fully considering China`s position.

4Living among the Elephants: South Korea and Japan`s Response to the U.S.-China Maritime Rivalry in the Asia-Pacific

저자 : Young-june Park

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권 3호 발행 연도 : 2017 페이지 : pp. 389-408 (20 pages)

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초록보기

The rise of China triggers a hot debate in the United States as well as in China concerning whether a rising power can coordinate with the existing power or inevitably confront each other. On this issue, some foresee a possibility of the next great war between the two countries whereas others view the prospect of co-evolution in which Beijing and Washington can shrewdly evade armed conflicts. This paper tries to illustrate how the United States and China are expanding their naval capabilities in parallel with the ongoing strategic debate within China and the United States. The rivalry between the two countries can have a lot of influence on the foreign policies of neighboring countries like South Korea and Japan. This paper also deals with how South Korea and Japan, comparatively small powers, have responded to the super powers` power game in the region. Finally, this paper suggests some policy proposals for South Korea to play a role in stabilizing the regional order.

5Terrorism`s Place in South Korean Grand Strategy

저자 : Robert E. Kelly

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권 3호 발행 연도 : 2017 페이지 : pp. 409-428 (20 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

If one understands North Korea`s provocations as terrorism rather than irregular warfare, then terrorism is arguably a chronic national security threat to South Korea. Similarly, the modernization of South Korea has put its citizens, corporations, and soldiers out into the world and raised their exposure to traditional non-state (Islamic, nationalist, and so on) terrorism. Yet South Korea`s two national security strategies to date scarcely touch on the issue, while Korea`s foremost security journal, the Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, has only published a handful of articles on the topic. Hence, this article seeks to place terrorism more coherently within South Korea`s growing grand strategy debate. It argues that Northern provocations fit within post-9/11 thinking about terrorism, and that South Koreans are targets of opportunity in the current salafist terror wave due to their alliance with America, Protestant evangelization overseas, and status as Buddhists, Confucians, or Christians in jihadists` “clash of civilizations” mindset. Terrorism event counts against South Koreans, including fatalities, are quantitatively presented. The totals are low, so the threat, while new, is middling, not existential. South Korea need not overreact as America arguably did to 9/11. Policies such as moderate homeland security measures, distance from expansive U.S. goals in the war on terror, and a wariness of Middle Eastern engagements are recommended.

6Picking a Fight: Democracies, Liberal Constraints, and Selective Conflict Initiation

저자 : Johann Park

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권 3호 발행 연도 : 2017 페이지 : pp. 429-454 (26 pages)

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Research shows that autocracies as well as democracies have reasons to avoid strong enemies. What, then, make democracies distinctive from autocracies in conflict selection? A critical difference may lie in the normative constraints democracies experience. Focusing on the roles of public sentiment and liberalism, we argue that democrats bearing high levels of accountability are less likely to choose armed conflict without justifiable causes. We assess the roles of three liberal factors in regard to the characteristics of target countries: respect of human rights, democratic representation, and economic interdependence. Material factors, such as relative military capability and geographic constraints are also considered. The results show that both autocracies and democracies tend to attack easier foes, but democracies avoid attacking countries that respect human rights and are economically interdependent. Additionally, unlike autocracies, democracies do not view other democracies as attractive targets of military attacks.

7U.S. Freedom of Navigation Operations in South China Sea: An Ongoing Riddle between the United States and China

저자 : Kyung Suk Lee , Kyu Young Lee

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권 3호 발행 연도 : 2017 페이지 : pp. 455-473 (19 pages)

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The United States and China`s antithetical stances on freedom of navigation in the South China Sea have consistently caused military tensions in East Asia. Based on employing the crisis bargaining theory, this article postulates that the United States and China are able to implement a hard-line strategy or an accommodative strategy in dealing with the controversial freedom of navigation issue in the South China Sea. This article categorizes each country`s strategies in a 2x2 model and examines four different cases for exploring each country`s payoffs: Case (1) the United States and China can both use force; Case (2) the United States can make unilateral concessions and China can hold its original demands; Case (3) China can make unilateral concessions and the United States can hold its original demands; and Case (4) the United States and China can make strategic compromises to avoid military clashes. This article maintains that the United States and China will choose both accommodative strategies in order to avoid open military conflicts. This article also contends that unilateral concessions either from the United States or China will harshly damage one side`s interest, thereby both countries will not choose unilateral concessions as a plausible option. In addition, both countries` use of force is the most unlikely option.

8Increasing U.S.-China Strategic Competition: Implications for Pakistan

저자 : Fouzia Amin , Khurshid Khan

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 29권 3호 발행 연도 : 2017 페이지 : pp. 475-493 (19 pages)

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Historically, China had been a great power and had maintained the largest economy in the world for quite a long time. It would, therefore, like to regain its lost status. There is consensus among many scholars that China would rise peacefully by adopting the five “principles of peaceful co-existence”, thus, it would take a leading role in the 21st century. It is viewed that the United States is already convinced to a great extent that it might not be able to maintain sole dominance for too long in the backdrop of the rising Chinese economic and military power. Based on an in-depth analysis of the issue, the study concludes that China would avoid clashing with Washington and its allies while protecting its economic interests across the globe. Nevertheless, the Chinese would react if their core interests are threatened by the United States and its allies including India. In order to protect its long-term interest in the region and beyond, China would gradually develop its military including its maritime capabilities to increase its influence beyond China`s periphery. However; it is highly unlikely that in the near future, China would contest the United States and its allies beyond the South China Sea. The study also concludes that in this great ongoing game between the quadrangles of the countries, if India makes a principle decision to stand by the United States in the case of a conflict with China over the Indian Ocean, such a scenario would limit Pakistan`s options to either join China or stay neutral. Either of the two options would pose a serious challenge for Pakistan. A decision to stay outside the Great Powers` power politics would be even more difficult.

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