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한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis> When Economic Interdependence Meets Power Politics: Predicting the Direction of East Asian Regionalism in Asia`s Paradox

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When Economic Interdependence Meets Power Politics: Predicting the Direction of East Asian Regionalism in Asia`s Paradox

Jee Yong Kim
  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권3호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2015년 09월
  • : 293-312(20pages)

DOI


목차

Introduction
Emergence and Evolution of East Asian Regionalism
Hypothesis-1: When Intraregional Trade Meets Intraregional Power Concentration
Hypothesis-2/3: When Intraregional Trade Meets Intraregional Political Alignment and Intraregional Territorial Disputes
Research Design
Predicting the Direction of East Asian Regionalism in Asia’s Paradox
Conclusion
Notes

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초록 보기


						
Because of rapid economic growth and close economic interdependence, East Asia has recently been in the spotlight of regional integration theorists. Currently, East Asia is being remapped in two ways: one is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP); and the other is the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPP). This article aims at predicting the winner of inter-institutional balancing between the two tracks from a viewpoint of power politics. To do so, realist hypotheses are made of regional integration and they are tested against the Integration Achievement Score (IAS) data. As a result, newly suggested hypotheses and some conventional ideas are strongly supported. These findings hold, regardless of model specifications and measurement of variables. Next, after analyzing how much the RCEP and the TPP accord with those findings, probabilities are presented showing that the two tracks can achieve regional economic integration. In conclusion, the TPP is expected to become the winner of inter-institutional balancing.

UCI(KEPA)

I410-ECN-0102-2016-390-000439836

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI,SCOPUS
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
  • :
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1989-2019
  • : 804


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1North Korea and Syria: Partners in Destruction and Violence

저자 : Bruce E Bechtol Jr.

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권 3호 발행 연도 : 2015 페이지 : pp. 277-292 (16 pages)

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North Korea and Syria have a long history of military cooperation. Most of this cooperation has been in the form of North Korean proliferation of weapons, training, assistance, and advisors. North Korea has assisted Syria in at least two forms of WMD-a chemical weapons program, and a plutonium nuclear weaponization program. While both of these programs have been largely destroyed, Syria will likely rebuild its chemical weapons program with North Korean assistance if not deterred by the international community. Conventional weapons are also an international security issue, as North Korea has proliferated a large number of weapons systems that have been used in the Syrian civil war by the Syrian army and Hezbollah fighters. North Korea has been a vital supporter of the Assad regime`s military throughout the Syrian civil war. Korean analysts should take note of how chemical weapons were used in the Syrian civil war because this is likely going to be a test-bed for future North Korean actions in a conflict with the South.

2When Economic Interdependence Meets Power Politics: Predicting the Direction of East Asian Regionalism in Asia`s Paradox

저자 : Jee Yong Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권 3호 발행 연도 : 2015 페이지 : pp. 293-312 (20 pages)

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초록보기

Because of rapid economic growth and close economic interdependence, East Asia has recently been in the spotlight of regional integration theorists. Currently, East Asia is being remapped in two ways: one is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP); and the other is the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership (TPP). This article aims at predicting the winner of inter-institutional balancing between the two tracks from a viewpoint of power politics. To do so, realist hypotheses are made of regional integration and they are tested against the Integration Achievement Score (IAS) data. As a result, newly suggested hypotheses and some conventional ideas are strongly supported. These findings hold, regardless of model specifications and measurement of variables. Next, after analyzing how much the RCEP and the TPP accord with those findings, probabilities are presented showing that the two tracks can achieve regional economic integration. In conclusion, the TPP is expected to become the winner of inter-institutional balancing.

3The Rise of China and Power Transition Scenarios in East Asia

저자 : Woo Sang Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권 3호 발행 연도 : 2015 페이지 : pp. 313-329 (17 pages)

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Power transition theory seems to imply that war between the United States and the rising China is inevitable. However, in this article it is explained that a peaceful power transition is possible. While there is uncertainty for China to successfully catch up with the United States, the future regional power transition scenarios suggest that the United States should make an effort to maintain power preponderance over China. To do that, the United States has to expand its new alliance partnerships and to efficiently manage its existing regional alliance system through its “pivot to Asia” policy. In that sense, the U.S. efforts to encourage Japan to become a “normal” state to share a larger military burden and to introduce the missile defense system in the region, including the THAAD system, to the Korean Peninsula would be helpful for the United States. In addition, inducing China to be less dissatisfied with the status quo is crucial for regional stability. The United States should encourage its allies and friends in the region to increase their economic interdependence with China and to participate actively in the China-led regional economic institutions such as the AIIB. While maintaining power preponderance, inducing China to be less dissatisfied with the status quo is one answer that the power transition theory provides for the United States to peacefully manage the era of the rising China in the region.

4More Rebalancing to Come: Progress and Prospects of the U.S. Rebalance to the Asia-Pacific

저자 : In Han Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권 3호 발행 연도 : 2015 페이지 : pp. 331-346 (16 pages)

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For the past two years, the Asia-Pacific seems to have returned to the back seat in U.S. foreign policy priorities because of crises in Europe and the Middle East, and Washington`s own fiscal problems. Given both global and domestic developments, it is a legitimate question to ask whether the U.S. rebalance to the Asia-Pacific is still valid. This paper asserts, “Yes, it is.” Washington has made steady progress across military, diplomatic, and economic realms of the rebalancing. It has strengthened and expanded military ties with regional states and prepared for its naval forces to operate more intensively. It has become a member of major multilateral institutions and expanded support for appropriate organizations. And it is striving to complete the most important trade deal in a generation, the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Despite budget pressures, the Obama administration has kept the Asia-Pacific high on its foreign policy agenda, and the rebalance has enjoyed bipartisan support. While the high-profile rebalancing moves have been relatively modest so far, the Obama administration`s achievements should not be understated. More balancing effort is certain to come.

5An Analysis and Lessons on South Korea`s Attempt and Postponement of the OPCON Transition from the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command

저자 : Hwee Rhak Park

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권 3호 발행 연도 : 2015 페이지 : pp. 347-363 (17 pages)

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This paper examines the relevance of logics for transferring Operational Control authority (OPCON) from the CFC (ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command) and draws several lessons for South Korea in order not to repeat the same mistakes. For this purpose, it explains the background of OPCON and compares the logics with the reality unfolded so far. The political leaders in the Roh administration pursued transition of OPCON in the name of sovereignty in 2003. However, OPCON authority is nothing but a tool to ensure the unity of command in military operations and it is not regarded as an infringement on sovereignty. The Roh administration promised to strengthen South Korean forces to lead the defense of South Korea through comprehensive defense reform efforts, but failed to accomplish them. Though they expected threats from North Korea would diminish gradually to be favorable to the transition, North Korea appears to have succeeded in developing several nuclear weapons. As a lesson, South Korea should understand that most countries in the world do not consider the delegation of OPCON as an infringement of national sovereignty. South Korea should focus on defense preparedness against the North Korean nuclear threat by making the CFC the key player for the combined nuclear deterrence. In the long run, South Korea should speed up its defense reform efforts in order to take a leading role in the combined defense posture with the U.S. forces and try to reflect people`s yearning for self-reliance. At the same time, the ROK and the United States should try to adopt measures that could ease South Korean people`s demand for self-reliance within the current CFC structure.

6The Vietnam War, Korea`s Opportunity for More Reliable Security Assurances

저자 : Kwan Pyo Bae

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권 3호 발행 연도 : 2015 페이지 : pp. 365-382 (18 pages)

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Most studies on the decision by the Republic of Korea (ROK) to send troops into combat in the Vietnam War share an assumption that the ROK did not actually want to dispatch them. However, some historical sources show that since the armistice agreement of the Korean War the ROK had tried to send troops to defeat the communists, and it was rather the United States that had dissuaded the ROK from doing so-until the United States was faced with unexpected difficulty in the ground warfare in 1965. By reviewing existing data and unearthing new documents, this paper clarifies why the ROK had tried to send the combat troops for a long period of time. According to research findings, it was not just to obtain more military and economic compensation from the United States. It was rather to gain more reliable security assurances for the ROK`s own survival. At the time, the ROK was dissatisfied with the deficient bilateral alliance with the United States and had pursued institutionalization of a new regional collective security regime to replace SEATO (Southeast Asia Treaty Organization). The ROK expected the dispatch to create an opportunity to initiate such a regime. These attempts could be seen as commendable. However, the attempts ended in failure, even though the ROK actually dispatched them, because the attempts required a change of the firmly established San Francisco System.

7The Russian Hybrid War in the Ukraine Crisis: Some Characteristics and Implications

저자 : Pyung Kyun Woo

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권 3호 발행 연도 : 2015 페이지 : pp. 383-400 (18 pages)

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This paper examines some characteristics of the Russian hybrid war in the Ukraine crisis since 2014, and then explores its implications. The hybrid approach is designed to generate “plausible deniability,” allowing Putin maximal tactical flexibility while avoiding responsibility. Russia`s hybrid warfare can be traced with some devices: propaganda (including cyber attack), tactics, the militants, and weapons. The meaning of the Russian hybrid war in Ukraine is focused on the three points. Firstly, Russia`s new approach, “hybrid war” cannot be considered independent of a long professional experience of Putin`s KGB operations before becoming a politician. Secondly, hybrid type warfare in Ukraine is not the first time for Russia. Putin previously applied his new kind of war almost unnoticed to the small and remote Georgia and Transnistria, but it cannot go without being understood when applied on a scale as large and visible as Ukraine. Thirdly, Russia`s actions in Ukraine have exploded the notion that expansive communications technologies and economic interdependence were fostering a kind of grand bargain. The Ukraine crisis suggests that world history after the Cold War is at an inflection point. In a world of hybrid warfare or non-linear conflict, we need to find new forms of deterrence.

8The South Korean-U.S. Nuclear Alliance: Steadfast and Changing

저자 : Richard Weitz

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 27권 3호 발행 연도 : 2015 페이지 : pp. 401-415 (15 pages)

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Nuclear-related issues remain at the core of the Seoul-Washington partnership. These include shared nuclear weapons threats to both partners from North Korea, tussles between South Koreans and Americans regarding how to deter and defeat these North Korean threats without antagonizing the other regional nuclear powers, and managing the transformation of the Republic of Korea (ROK) into a major civilian nuclear energy producer and exporter. Whatever the changes in the Northeast Asian security environment, the enduring goals of the South Korean-U.S. defense alliance remain unchanged-to deter North Korean aggression, maintain South Koreans` security and welfare, contribute to regional and global stability, and work toward Korean reunification. But the shifting nature of the regional security environment has required difficult adjustments by both partners to sustain a robust and effective partnership.

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