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한국부동산분석학회> 부동산학연구> 상태공간모형을 활용한 부동산실거래가격지수 추정에 관한 연구: 거래빈도가 낮은 지역을 중심으로

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상태공간모형을 활용한 부동산실거래가격지수 추정에 관한 연구: 거래빈도가 낮은 지역을 중심으로

A Study on the Construction of the Transaction-based Real Estate Price Indices Using State Space Model: Focusing on Thin Markets

박헌수 ( Heon Soo Park ) , 유은영 ( Eun Young Yoo )
  • : 한국부동산분석학회
  • : 부동산학연구 20권1호
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 2014년 03월
  • : 5-17(13pages)
피인용수 : 19건

(자료제공: 네이버학술정보)

DOI


목차

I. 서론
II. 선행연구 고찰
III. 모형
Ⅳ. 실증분석
V. 결론
참고문헌

키워드 보기


초록 보기


						
This paper estimates the transaction-based real estate price indices for thin markets that have few transactions by using a state space model. The thinness of the market does have a marked effect on the precision of the price index estimate. Since the volitility of the price indices for thin markets estimated by the hedonic price model or repeated- sales model tends to be high, the precision of them is question of our interest. In this paper, we suggest an alternative approach to make stable price indices even when the number of transactions are small or even does not exist. We have developed the transaction-based price indices for the apartment of Gangnam-Gu and Jongno-Gu, Seoul, by using state space models which are estimated by the Kalman filtering and EM(Expectation and Maximization) algorithm. In order to consider the thin markets, we divide housing market by its size: small-sized and medium and large sized apartment. We find that our suggested apartment price indices have lower volatility and much more accurate than the traditional repeated sales indices.

UCI(KEPA)

I410-ECN-0102-2015-300-000442408

간행물정보

  • : 사회과학분야  > 경제학
  • : KCI등재
  • :
  • : 계간
  • : 1229-4403
  • :
  • : 학술지
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 1995-2019
  • : 587


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발행기관 최신논문
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1상태공간모형을 활용한 부동산실거래가격지수 추정에 관한 연구: 거래빈도가 낮은 지역을 중심으로

저자 : 박헌수 ( Heon Soo Park ) , 유은영 ( Eun Young Yoo )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 20권 1호 발행 연도 : 2014 페이지 : pp. 5-17 (13 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

This paper estimates the transaction-based real estate price indices for thin markets that have few transactions by using a state space model. The thinness of the market does have a marked effect on the precision of the price index estimate. Since the volitility of the price indices for thin markets estimated by the hedonic price model or repeated- sales model tends to be high, the precision of them is question of our interest. In this paper, we suggest an alternative approach to make stable price indices even when the number of transactions are small or even does not exist. We have developed the transaction-based price indices for the apartment of Gangnam-Gu and Jongno-Gu, Seoul, by using state space models which are estimated by the Kalman filtering and EM(Expectation and Maximization) algorithm. In order to consider the thin markets, we divide housing market by its size: small-sized and medium and large sized apartment. We find that our suggested apartment price indices have lower volatility and much more accurate than the traditional repeated sales indices.

2연립방정식 모형을 이용한 서울 오피스시장의 균형메커니즘 연구

저자 : 이무송 ( Moo Song Lee ) , 유정석 ( Jung Suk Yu )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 20권 1호 발행 연도 : 2014 페이지 : pp. 19-38 (20 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

This paper develops a simultaneous equations system by 3SLS(Three Stage Least Square) estimation to investigate the equilibrium mechanism between demand-driven rent and office supply functions and between rent in the space market and cap rate functions in the real estate capital market. The preceding studies have primarily focused on the interrelationship between demand and supply function sides only. We find that DiPasquale-Wheaton 4-quadrant model is comparatively well applied to the Seoul office market in case of rent and cap rate functions except the office supply function. Furthermore, the rent and cap rate in Seoul office market can be estimated according to the scenarios based on the estimated parameters. As a result of simulations, office rent is relatively less influenced than cap rate by the key economic variables and the Seoul office market is closer to the capital gains-oriented asset market than rental income-oriented space market, given the relationship between the office rent and cap rate.

3도시구조와 탄소배출 간 관계에 대한 소고: 압축도시와 다핵도시 특성을 중심으로

저자 : 박준 ( Joon Park )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 20권 1호 발행 연도 : 2014 페이지 : pp. 39-56 (18 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

This study tries to understand the underlying reasons for different views on the relationship between urban structure and carbon emissions. Firstly, this study reviews preceding research on the relationship between the overall spatial characteristics of cities and carbon emissions. Significant variables in the research are environmental variables such as area of park or green space and transportation related variables such as length of road per capita. Secondly, main results and issues from preceding research on the spatial characteristics of compact city and polycentricity are extracted. Different views over carbon-reducing impact of compact development, dispersed development, and polycentric development are identified. Lastly, this study attempts to understand the main causes underlying the different views on the relationship of the spatial characteristics of compact city and polycentricity with carbon emissions focusing on the merging process of residential spheres. This study tries to show that independence of sub-centres in terms of commuting hierarchy in a city can explain the advantage of dispersed-compact development in carbon-reducing.

4주택연금가입에 따른 고령가구의 소득불평등 개선효과

저자 : 김홍대 ( Hong Dae Kim ) , 최진 ( Jin Choi ) , 진창하 ( Chang Ha Jin )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 20권 1호 발행 연도 : 2014 페이지 : pp. 57-77 (21 pages)

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This study explore the effect of reverse annuity mortgage whether it improves the income level of the elderly households. Using KLIPS(4th - 11st, 2001 - 2008), we analyze the hypothetical situation that the applicable elderly households applies for the current reverse mortgage annuity provided by Korean Housing and Finance Corporation(KHFC). We hypothesize that the current reverse annuity mortgage does have a positive effect on the income level for the elderly households through allowing wealth effect and mitigating their financial hardship.

5오피스 순영업소득(NOI)에 대한 고찰 -오피스 특성변수를 이용하여-

저자 : 양영준 ( Young Jun Yang ) , 임병준 ( Byeong Jun Rhim )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 20권 1호 발행 연도 : 2014 페이지 : pp. 79-95 (17 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

This study is to find out the determinants of the net operating income from office building, which may be said to be the profit for a company, estimate the floor space which maximizes or minimizes the net operation income and also find out the effect of the type of ownership on the net operating income. The result of the regression analysis for net operating income for office showed that the income is dependent on the building area, number of story, age and location of the building. According to the corporate profit maximization theory, it was estimated that the net operating income for the office building would be the smallest when the gross area is 10,886㎡ while it is the largest with 44,606㎡. In addition, the type of ownership of office building was analyzed as the types of ownerships get diversified. It showed that the average net operating income earned by the investing organization is bigger than those earned by large companies. It is because the effective gross income for the investment organization is higher than for large corporations. This study has meanings as it handled both revenues and expenses of office buildings compared to the previous studies, derived the gross area which maximizes the net operating income and take into consideration type of ownership for the difference in net operating income. This study has its limitation as the precaution is required in applying the result to the study of offices located all around the nation. But, if the result is adopted for regional application, the difference of net operating income depending on the type of ownership would be more clear.

6층수에 따른 공동주택 관리비의 변화특성 분석에 관한 연구

저자 : 박종열 ( Jong Ryul Park ) , 조주현 ( Joo Hyun Cho )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 20권 1호 발행 연도 : 2014 페이지 : pp. 97-125 (29 pages)

다운로드

(기관인증 필요)

초록보기

For the purpose of this study, we categorized the groups of apartments into general[under 29-story], high-rise[30-49 story] and super high-rise[over 50-story] ones on the basis of their story numbers. We also classified the management expenses items into five categories; exclusive use expenses, public use expenses, ordinary use expenses, ordinary management expenses, maintenance costs. As the result of proceeding the regression analysis by adopting them as a dependent variable after dividing the elements of the management expenses into 28 items, a definite difference was found according to the category of the apartments. The elements which are influenced by the story numbers among the five major elements of the management expenses turned out to be the public use expenses, the maintenance cost and the general use expenses. The management expenses items were to be classified into three kinds of the following characteristic types. The first one is the direct proportion type with the characteristic of the positive interrelation, the second one is the inverse proportion type with the negative interrelation, and the third one is the square type with the positive characteristic in the general and high apartments but with the negative characteristic in the high and super high-rise ones. According to the result of the analysis, the necessity of the efficient management of the characteristics of the core management expenses items was on the rise.

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