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한국부동산분석학회> 부동산학연구

부동산학연구 update

Journal of KREAA

  • : 한국부동산분석학회
  • : 사회과학분야  >  경제학
  • : KCI등재
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  • : 연속간행물
  • : 계간
  • : 1229-4403
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수록정보
수록범위 : 1권1호(1995)~24권4호(2018) |수록논문 수 : 563
부동산학연구
24권4호(2018년 12월) 수록논문
최근 권호 논문
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KCI등재

1주택임대시장 균형조건을 이용한 주택매매가격 대비 전세가격 비율 결정요인 분석: 주택매매가격 변동성을 중심으로

저자 : 정의철 ( Chung Eui-chul ) , 이창무 ( Lee Chang-moo )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 24권 4호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 5-20 (16 pages)

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Traditional approach to analyze the determinants of Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio is based on asset market equilibrium condition. However, this approach does not fully account for complexity involved in Korean rental housing market, where Chonsei, Monthly-rent-with-variable deposit, and pure monthly rental contracts coexist. In this paper, we utilize each rental type's different rate of return structure and examine the determinants of Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio based on rental housing market equilibrium condition. We further incorporate housing price volatility into the analysis as a critical variable related to housing investment risks, which has been ignored in previous studies. 
Our empirical analysis using a sample of the apartment sales price and rent in Seoul confirm our theoretical predictions: Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio is positively linked to the rent-to-price ratio and housing price volatility, and the ratio is negatively affected by the expected housing price appreciation rate. The relationship between the Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio and housing price volatility was robust to different measures of housing price volatility. 
The long-run elasticity of Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio with respect to rentto- price ratio was estimated to be 1.04~1.22 and the long-run elasticity of the ratio with respect to housing price volatility was estimated to be 0.15~0.53. which is about 50 to 100 percent of the long-run elasticity with respect to expected housing price appreciation rate. These results show that previously ignored housing price volatility is one of important variables to affect Chonsei deposit to housing sales price ratio and risk factors are needed to be considered to better understand Korean housing market.

KCI등재

2주거용 부동산 자본환원율과 자산시장의 균형관계에 관한 분석

저자 : 하서진 ( Ha Seo-jin ) , 노승한 ( Ro Seung-han )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 24권 4호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 21-37 (17 pages)

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This study is based on changes in the residential real estate market, where increasing number of Jeonse are changing into normal monthly rents. Unlike other countries where enterprise-class home rental businesses dominate, Korean housing rental markets usually rent houses owned by individuals for operational profit. The continued low interest rate and the accelerated change in rental system may have resulted in the conversion of residential real estate to monthly rent and has increased importance of return on capital.
Analysis has analyzed the balance between the capitalization rate of monthly rent and the asset market. The time series analysis has looked at the balance between the capitalization rate of residential real estate and the yield rate of other financial assets: the three-year bond rate, the three-year treasury bond rate and the interest rate for mortgage loans. The analysis has showed that it was in balance with the three-year interest rate for corporate bonds, the three-year interest rate for treasury bonds, and the interest rate for mortgage loans. Although previous research on capitalization rate was limited to commercial real estate, this study also analyzes of the return rate of residential real estate.

KCI등재

3보금자리론 금리가 예금은행의 COFIX 금리에 미치는 영향

저자 : 장한익 ( Jang Han-ik ) , 오주한 ( Oh Joo-han ) , 임병권 ( Lim Byungkwon ) , 김형근 ( Kim Hyungkeun )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 24권 4호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 39-51 (13 pages)

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This study examines whether the Bogeumjari loan interest rate affects the COFIX(Cost of Funds Index) interest rate, which is the current standard interest rate of the private mortgage sector in Korea. The data used for the empirical analysis are monthly data from January 2010 to May 2018. We analyze the granger causality test, VAR model, impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition.
The main results are as follows. First, the granger causality shows predictive power from the Bogeumjari loan interest rate to the COFIX interest rate. However, we find no opposite causality from the COFIX interest rate to the Bogeumjari loan interest rate. Second, we find that the adjustment of the Bogeumjari loan interest rate significantly affects the change of the COFIX interest rate after two-month. It is likely to show more robust results to the downward adjustment of the Bogeumjari loan interest rate. Third, the impulse response function and variance decomposition also show that the change of the Bogeumjari loan interest rate influences on the change of the COFIX interest rate. Especially, we find more robust results over the most recent period.
Overall, we find that the Bogeumjari loan interest rate leads the COFIX interest rate. The Bogeumjari loan interest rate mitigates the increase in the COFIX interest rate and magnifies the decrease in the COFIX interest rate. Therefore, we infer that the Bogeumjari loan interest plays an important role in the COFIX interest rate as one of controlling factors.

KCI등재

4아파트 단지특성이 주택매매거래율에 미치는 영향

저자 : 김동현 ( Kim Donghyun ) , 이상경 ( Lee Sangkyeong )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 24권 4호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 53-68 (16 pages)

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This paper aims at finding out structural and locational characteristics of apartment complex affect the count rate of housing transaction using Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial regression model with an offset, the number of houses. Results of the analysis are as follows. First, zero-inflated negative binomial regression model has turned out the best-fitted model. Second, we find out that the number of highest floor number, the ratio of the house below 85㎡, the number of academy and district heating system have positive effects on the count rate of house transaction. Unlike hypothesis of housing prices, the age of apartment, the construction capability ranking of the constructor of apartment and proximity to the Han River have negative effects. Third, some of the locational characteristics that affect apartment prices do not affect count rate. The park distance, subway station distance, school distance variables do not affect count rate. On the contrary, count rates of the Northwest, Southwest, Southeast, and city center region are lower than the Northeast. This study differs from precedent studies in that it does not deal with regional transaction volume and macroeconomic variables but transaction volumes of apartment complexes and structural and locational characteristics. In terms of methodology, this study introduces the total number of houses as an offset to control the influence to the count rate and zero-inflated model to overcome the problem of zero-inflation. This trial contributes to the methodological development.

KCI등재

5최초 자가마련기간에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석

저자 : 윤윤채 ( Yoon Yoon Chae ) , 김진유 ( Kim Jin Yoo )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 24권 4호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 69-81 (13 pages)

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The purpose of this study is to identify the factors affecting the period of first home buying after marriage. The study was carried out using 2,041 households data from the 2016 Housing Survey. We analyzed the determinants of choosing between home buying and renting using logistic regression. A group of multiple regressions were used to clarify the effect of main factors on period of buying the home for the first time after marriage. The results are summarized as follows. First, household's net asset is related to the home buying decision but it does not affect the period to buy the first home. Second, income is not significant when the household decides to buy the home. However, the impact of household's income is different by the term of first home buying. The households buying their first home in 10 years after marriage were not affected by their income while the others who take longer than 10 years to buy their first home can shorten the time to buy the house using their income. Third, rent type, monthly rent or Chonsei, before buying a home is significant factor of selection of their current tenure but, the first-home buying period is not associated with the rent type.

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