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한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis

Korean journal of defense analysis update

  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : 사회과학분야  >  정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI,SCOPUS
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
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수록정보
수록범위 : 1권1호(1989)~31권3호(2019) |수록논문 수 : 804
Korean journal of defense analysis
31권3호(2019년 09월) 수록논문
최근 권호 논문
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KCI등재 SSCI SCOPUS

1Denuclearization of North Korea: Before and After the Summits

저자 : Edward Kwon

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권 3호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 309-328 (20 pages)

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This paper analyzes the background of the nuclear stalemate between Trump and Kim in the Hanoi Summit and investigates various issues involving North Korean denuclearization, including a detailed roadmap and proper compensation for Pyongyang. The paper uses tree cardinal perspectives of analytical tools (the will of the leader, nuclear capability, and nuclear strategy) to critically assess North Korea's nuclear weapons program and fathom Kim Jong Un's stance on denuclearization. The United States reaffirms CVID/FFVD principles regarding North Korea's WMD, while Pyongyang prefers an action-for-action method of denuclearization. Although Pyongyang has announced an end to its nuclear testing and has shut down nuclear facilities, experts question whether Pyongyang really is dismantling its nuclear program. Pyongyang's hidden nuclear facilities and accumulation of HEU in numerous places, the complicated process of verification, as well as potential traps in the details of the denuclearization agreement pose a big challenge. In light of the current nuclear stalemate, President Moon's mediating effort to bring Kim Jong Un back to the denuclearization table is imperative.

KCI등재 SSCI SCOPUS

2A New Approach to North Korea's Denuclearization: Lynchpin-First-Removal Roadmap

저자 : Joo Hyun Moon

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권 3호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 329-347 (19 pages)

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Despite the Hanoi Summit between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un, there has been no positive sign that the North Korea nuclear problem is being resolved. To advance the denuclearization negotiations, a new approach to denuclearization must be considered, which needs to meet two objectives simultaneously: to relieve North Korea's concerns about its regime change and to practically eliminate its nuclear capability to fabricate additional nuclear weapons and refurbish existing nuclear weapons. The new approach should consider infrastructures that would be indispensable in implementing North Korea's denuclearization processes and stopping any attempt to proliferate North Korea's nuclear materials and technologies amid denuclearization. Accordingly, this paper proposes a new roadmap whose key concept is to first disable and, then, gradually but completely dismantle the lynchpin nuclear facilities within 10 years. Here, lynchpin facilities are defined as key facilities that are directly related to the production of nuclear materials or other materials used when fabricating and refurbishing the key components of nuclear weapons or which would have a fatal impact on maintaining North Korea's nuclear weapon program. Additionally, this roadmap addresses corresponding measures for denuclearization activities. This roadmap consists of three sub-periods: the lynchpin disablement period, verification and dismantling period, and manifest threat removal period. This paper also identifies and incorporates into the roadmap the supporting infrastructure and possible corresponding measures to accompany the denuclearization steps.

KCI등재 SSCI SCOPUS

3A Theoretical Account of the International Multilateral Negotiation of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW)

저자 : Hyun Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권 3호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 349-374 (26 pages)

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This article aims to explain the multilateral negotiations of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which was adopted at the UN General Assembly on July 7, 2017, from the model of institutional bargaining. Its findings are: first, non-nuclear states' sense of frustration and crisis about the failure of progress on nuclear disarmament under the NPT regime served as a critical momentum to move towards the negotiations. Second, consensual knowledge about the humanitarian effects of nuclear weapons and solutions served as a driving force behind embarking on the negotiations. Third, the leadership by a core group of pro-ban non-nuclear countries was effective in mobilizing political support and facilitating the timely conclusion of the negotiations. Fourth, a salient solution of a simple and robust treaty, and a bridging solution to allow any country in possession of nuclear weapons to join the treaty before their elimination contributed to the prompt agreement on the treaty. Fifth, clear and effective compliance measures regarding non-nuclear states facilitated the conclusion of the negotiations, whereas the lack of clear and effective compliance measures regarding state parties possessing nuclear weapons rather contributed to the timely end of the negotiations. Finally, a fast-track approach, a single-text negotiating strategy, and an issue decomposition strategy were effective in reaching consensus on the treaty text.

KCI등재 SSCI SCOPUS

4The 2020 NPT Review Conference and the Role of the ROK

저자 : Hanbyeol Sohn

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권 3호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 375-397 (23 pages)

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The purpose of this paper is to assess the strategic environment of the Republic of Korea (ROK) and to examine what strategies the ROK will develop ahead of the 2020 NPT Review Conference. Nuclear arms control policy-making is very complex for the ROK because of its specific security dilemma. And the role and strategy of the ROK in international regimes are increasingly important for the ROK's security and status in the world. Thus, the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and its review process including the Review Conference and Preparatory Committee are particularly essential to the ROK. In 2020 when the 10th Review Conference will be held, the ROK should present an appropriate strategy. For this, this article first outlines the establishment and development of the NPT and its review process from 1995 to 2015, after the Cold War and the North Korean nuclear issue was raised. And it describes the ROK's role played in the NPT on the basis of its three pillars and suggests what strategies Korea must retain: Nuclear disarmament and security assurances from Russia and China; Coercing the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) to rejoin the NPT; Continuing the momentum of the Nuclear Security Summit; and Setting and leading a new agenda. This study concludes with a forecast that the year 2020 will be a major turning point for Korea.

KCI등재 SSCI SCOPUS

5The Persistent Status Quo with North Korea: Why Has So Little Changed Since 2017?

저자 : Robert E. Kelly

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권 3호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 399-418 (20 pages)

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The years 2017-2019 have been remarkable in the long stand-off with North Korea, as much for the drama of war-threats and then summits, as for the durability of the North Korean status quo. Indeed, given all the sturm-und-drang of both hawkish and then dovish approaches to North Korea since 2017, the greatest surprise is how little both alternatives have accomplished 'on the ground.' This essay investigates surprise―why is the North Korean status quo so persistent? Specifically, why have the hawkish and dovish deviations from the status quo since 2017 so failed to change much? Several hypotheses derived from levels of analysis theory in international relations are suggested. In brief, a leader level analysis would focus particularly on Trump's personality―his swings of interest, his personalistic bargaining style, his sloth, his chaotic staffing. A domestic analysis would identify the divisions within both the United States and South Korea over policy toward the North. And a structural answer would posit the value of nuclear deterrence as the cause particularly of Trump's failure to budge Pyongyang. Because North Korean intentions, particularly Kim's psychological preferences, are only poorly discernible, assigning causal weight to each hypothesis is quite difficult so long as the North's opacity persists. Hence this essay focuses on concept and hypothesis development while nonetheless laying out what evidence there is.

KCI등재 SSCI SCOPUS

6The 2018 Reform of the China Coast Guard: Logic, Development and Implications

저자 : Mike Chia-yu Huang

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권 3호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 419-435 (17 pages)

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In June 2018, the Chinese government initiated a new round of reforms to reshuffle the leadership of the China Coast Guard (CCG) so as to better administer the country's blue territory. In contrast to the 2013 structural reform of the Chinese government which created the CCG and made it part of the State Oceanic Administration, a sub-ministerial organ of the Chinese State Council, the 2018 reform placed the agency under direct command of the Communist Party's Central Military Commission. This paper argues that the CCG today has been a formidable maritime giant and acquired a fair ability to coordinate its patrol operations with other agencies in recent years. In particular, the maritime law enforcement force has been made more militarized given its close association with the Chinese Navy. Nonetheless, despite the notable performance the CCG has made, it still faces problems of unclear legal status and weak airborne surveillance capabilities, keeping its institutional reform far from full completion. Moreover, a more powerful coast guard force can on the one hand facilitate Beijing's aim to become a great maritime power but on the other hand lead to more security challenges as a harsher maritime contest between China and its strategic competitors is likely to be witnessed in the near future.

KCI등재 SSCI SCOPUS

7The Civil War in Syria in View of the Iranian Challenge in the Middle East: An Israeli Perspective

저자 : Niv Farago

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권 3호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 437-455 (19 pages)

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This article examines the civil war in Syria and Iran's military buildup in that country through the lens of senior Israeli politicians, military officers, and security pundits. Most of them agree that the Netanyahu government's policy of striking Iran-linked targets in Syria hard while encouraging Europe to impose, like the United States, debilitating sanctions on Iran has severely damaged the ayatollahs' plans. By interrupting Iranian efforts to establish a Hezbollah-like force in Syria and equip it with precision-guided missiles, Israeli policy has also decreased, some pundits believe, the likelihood of regional war. However, this article suggests that although Israel's policy has hindered Iranian entrenchment in Syria, the danger of regional war has increased. Debilitating sanctions could cause Iran to discard the 2015 nuclear deal, thereby provoking an Israeli strike on its nuclear installations, and increasingly bolder strikes in Syria may spur the ayatollahs to retaliate harshly. Reliant upon Iran to secure Assad's victory, but determined to deny the ayatollahs control over Syria, Russia is allowing Israeli strikes to continue as it rehabilitates Assad's forces and rearms them with advanced weaponry. This weaponry, including S-300 defense systems that threaten Israeli planes, could embolden Syria to attempt recapturing the Golan Heights in the future.

KCI등재 SSCI SCOPUS

8Military Recruitment Issues in the ROK Armed Forces and Policy Alternatives: Focusing on the Army Non-commissioned Officer

저자 : David Shin , Young-gon Kim

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 31권 3호 발행 연도 : 2019 페이지 : pp. 457-475 (19 pages)

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The Non-commissioned Officer (NCO) is regarded as the core of military combat forces performing their duties at the front-line of defense, but the recent drop in applications and enrollment of Army NCOs has hampered the acquisition and operation of the workforce. As a way to solve this problem, the Army is paying attention to job security and has been implementing the “Long-Term service NCO upon commissioning” recruiting system in the second half of 2018. In this study, we surveyed 1,492 young and active duty soldiers considering the above problems and current situation, and empirically analyzed what factors, including occupational safety, would undermine the applications and enrollment of Army NCOs. The results of the analysis showed that low occupational status, low job security, a lack of trust in the military, inadequate career and career development conditions, uncomfortable work environment and region, and hierarchical culture of the military have had an influence over the recent drop in applications and enrollment of Army NCOs. In addition, the McNemar test was conducted to further analyze the effectuality of the incentive for people to apply to become Army NCOs. As a result of the analysis, it was confirmed that in all groups, the effect the “Long- Term service NCO upon commissioning” recruiting system was far better than the traditional recruiting system. Based on the results of the above study, several policy proposals have been suggested to improve the acquisition of the Army NCO.

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Leiden University Australian National University The University of Edinburgh University of British Columbia(CANADA) University of Toronto
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  • 1 Leiden University (30건)
  • 2 Australian National University (18건)
  • 3 The University of Edinburgh (17건)
  • 4 University of British Columbia(CANADA) (16건)
  • 5 University of Toronto (15건)
  • 6 서울대학교 (14건)
  • 7 연세대학교 (9건)
  • 8 한양대학교 (8건)
  • 9 한국외국어대학교 (8건)
  • 10 Georgetown University (8건)

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