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한국국방연구원> Korean journal of defense analysis

Korean journal of defense analysis update

  • : 한국국방연구원
  • : 사회과학분야  >  정치/외교학
  • : KCI등재
  • : SSCI,SCOPUS
  • : 연속간행물
  • : 계간
  • : 1016-3271
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수록정보
수록범위 : 1권1호(1989)~32권3호(2020) |수록논문 수 : 836
Korean journal of defense analysis
32권3호(2020년 09월) 수록논문
최근 권호 논문
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KCI등재 SSCI SCOPUS

1Trump Administration's Korean Nuclear Crisis Management and Prospects for Solution

저자 : Huizhi Zhang , Xiaotong Zhang

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 331-349 (19 pages)

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The Korean nuclear crisis in 2017 was essentially a brinkmanship policy crisis deliberately created by the Trump administration. That is to say, the Trump administration forced the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) to choose between war and concession by imposing “maximum pressure,” so as to promote the process of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. However, due to the DPRK's hedging strategy, U.S. domestic political constraints, and lack of international cooperation, the negotiation between the United States and the DPRK reached a stalemate. There even had been a debate in the United States over whether or not the government would acquiesce to the DPRK being a nuclear state. If any real progress is to be achieved, the Trump administration must set limited goals under a practical scheme. And at the same time, the UN Security Council should formulate reversible provisions to restrain the United States and the DPRK from failing to keep their promises. It should also reduce the negative impact of the lack of mutual trust between the two countries with a guarantee of the international community, thereby accelerating the peace process of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

KCI등재 SSCI SCOPUS

2From Confrontation to Conflict between China and Taiwan: Major Challenges for Taiwan's Counter Strategy

저자 : Sukjoon Yoon , Junho Yun

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 351-370 (20 pages)

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This article explores the issue of Taiwan's security, increasingly threatened by China's overwhelming military power. Taiwan has long been protected by a security commitment from the United States, but recent geopolitical shifts and technological developments have raised questions about the effectiveness of Taiwan's strategy. Operational concepts and tactics, such as Taiwan's A2/AD defense against the PLA are severely challenged by China's enhanced amphibious capabilities. Taiwan now looks vulnerable to a full-scale amphibious assault by the PLA, and the U.S. commitment has been undermined by the transactional emphasis of the current administration, with Taiwan seen primarily as a tool to contain Chinese expansionism rather than an end in and of itself. Clearly, the Taiwanese military needs to up its game, and this article makes four recommendations: First, Taiwan should significantly increase its independent military capabilities, forcing Chinese military planners to reconsider whether the military options against Taiwan are worthwhile. Second, Taiwan should deploy its substantial technological prowess to strengthen its cyber warfare defenses. Third, Taiwan should rapidly acquire advanced foreign-made weapons and systems, abandoning its costly and timeconsuming indigenous development policies. Fourth, Taiwan's leaders should give serious consideration to developing nuclear weapons, as only this can deter the Chinese military threat in the long term.

KCI등재 SSCI SCOPUS

3The Impact of the Reinforced Sanctions on the North Korean Economy: Focused on the Ripple Effects from Trade Shock

저자 : Ji Young Choi

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 371-391 (21 pages)

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This study attempts to examine how reinforced sanctions affected the North Korean economy focusing on the interdependence of industries. North Korea's trade with China, accounting for more than 90 percent of its total trade, sharply dropped right after the UNSC intensified sanctions. Trade shock affects the domestic economy through a decrease in demand and supply, caused by the reduction of exports and imports, respectively. We estimate the ripple effect from trade shock after the recent sanctions using input-output analysis. According to the estimation results, export shock caused a decrease in value-added by 1.4-1.5 billion USD, which accounts for 8.5-9.0 percent of the North Korean GDP. In addition, import shock was concentrated on the capital goods of final goods, while it rarely affected intermediate imports. For the reinforced sanctions, the dependency of intermediate imports showed an increase in some industries such as agriculture, forestry and fishery and light industry. These results indicate that the economic impact from the recent sanctions could be different from that of the collapse of the former socialist bloc in the early 1990s. In terms of export shock, the sanctions' negative effect is estimated to be higher. However, the negative effect from import shock is lower than that of the early 1990s, since it is far from reducing the intermediate inputs to the overall industry.

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Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) are being developed by major countries as a core value of future war. The international community is actively discussing the legal issues and regulatory methods of LAWS at the Group of Government Experts (GGE) meetings hosted by the Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW). The main purpose of the first part of this paper is to compare and analyze countries' positions on each issue at the above GGE. At the GGE, there are contrasting stances between those supporting and opposing strict regulations on LAWS. A consensus was not reached on the definition of LAWS and the necessity to create a new treaty that regulates LAWS. However, most countries and NGOs are trying to find a methodology for autonomous weapons to comply with international humanitarian law through “human elements.” It is difficult to expect the creation of a new treaty, so the recent GGE has emphasized the solution through Article 36 of Additional Protocol I. Based on the discussions at the GGE, the second part of this paper will examine the proper policy direction that South Korea can set for LAWS. The issues and trends discussed in the GGE need to be fully understood by government policy makers and defense industry experts. In addition, in order to clarify the implementation of Article 36, it is possible to use a method to prepare regulations in domestic laws or codes of conduct to test compliance with international laws on new weapons including LAWS. As to whether or not to create the new treaty, diplomatic channels can carefully consider options for participating in Europeanled political declarations. Finally, an accurate understanding of the U.S. position on LAWS regulations is needed, and government-led research and development can play an important role in promoting international solidarity among allies.

KCI등재 SSCI SCOPUS

5South Korea's Policy towards China's “Belt and Road Initiative”: Implications for India

저자 : Ranjit Kumar Dhawan

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 419-435 (17 pages)

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China's “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) is being projected as one of the biggest infrastructure and connectivity projects of the 21st century. This Chinese mega project has evoked varied responses from the Asian nations. South Korea (hereafter Korea) which is the fourth biggest economy in Asia and an important trade partner of India has been supportive of the BRI, as this strategy is compatible with Seoul's own vision of increased connectivity with the Eurasian market, capital, labor and resources, and is conducive to the promotion of Korean national reunification. On the other hand, India has been opposed to the BRI as it overlooks New Delhi's sovereignty concerns and serves China's geopolitical interests. Also, India has been supporting the “Indo-Pacific strategy” along with the United States, Japan and Australia to counter China's rising hegemony in the region. As a result, Korea and India have different views on the BRI. This article aims to conduct an analysis of Korea's policy towards China's BRI which could have detrimental implications for India and argues that there is a need to take some serious measures to improve Korea-India relations in the coming times.

KCI등재 SSCI SCOPUS

6Two-Level Game and Politics of the United States–North Korea Negotiation

저자 : Ihn-hwi Park

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 437-456 (20 pages)

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When the second U.S.–North Korea Summit in Hanoi, Vietnam ended abruptly without a deal, critics and experts argued that U.S. President Trump, considering the domestic pressure, changed his goals and interests at the very last minute. To theoretically explain the negotiation process in Hanoi, this study analyzes the win-set structure of the United States and North Korea. This study also aims to examine the causes of the failure by comparing the agreement zones between the United States and North Korea's win-sets before and after the summit. Two-level game theory explains how negotiating countries with conflicting interests achieve an agreement and what kinds of strategies the governments use to maximize their own national interests. The key assumption of the two-level game theory is the linkage between domestic politics and international affairs, and the interconnection was widely suggested by many scholars including Gabriel A. Almond, James N. Rosenau, and Bruce M. Russett. Building on to this literature, Putnam's two-level game theory introduced the concept of a “win-set” and examined the international negotiation process thoroughly using this theoretical model. Based on the analysis of the two parties' win-sets, this study finds that the United States intentionally ended the negotiation without a deal by contracting the size of its win-set. The United States shifted its interest from the original position, which is “trading partial (or symbolic) dismantlement of North Korean nuclear weapons with partial removal of economic sanctions,” to the new interest position including the abandonment of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) referred to as “Yongbyon Plus Alpha” and the agreement on a roadmap to denuclearization.

KCI등재 SSCI SCOPUS

7Framing Cyber Security in Taiwan: A Perspective of Discursive Knowledge Production

저자 : Hon-min Yau

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 457-474 (18 pages)

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In 2019, the Tsai Ing-wen administration in Taiwan successfully amended the National Security Act as a protective measure against threats in cyberspace. However, Taiwan has perceived itself under China's cyber-attacks since 1999, yet it is only the Tsai administration that was able to mobilize substantial resources to counter this threat. To understand what has been different in her endeavor, this paper investigated this historical development in the discourse of Taiwan's cyber security via the analytical framework of securitization. It argues that the improvement of Taiwan's cyber posture under Tsai is not due to the previous administrations' ignorance of cyber threats but is due to the unique context that enables discursive practices of knowledge production during the Tsai administration to deliver a more convincing claim. The investigation further provides cautious notes on the potential adverse effect of this securitization.

KCI등재 SSCI SCOPUS

8Why Nuclear Non-proliferation Disputes Cannot Be Settled through Judicial or Adjudication Arrangements

저자 : Wenfu Mou

발행기관 : 한국국방연구원 간행물 : Korean journal of defense analysis 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2020 페이지 : pp. 475-494 (20 pages)

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Whilst the NPT regime constituted from several international treaties provides judicial and adjudicatory arrangements for nuclear dispute settlement such as ad hoc arbitration and litigation before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), in the Comprehensive Safeguard Agreement (CSA) and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Statute respectively, such arrangements, in contemporary practice, have remained silent towards nuclear proliferation problems, and the Security Council has dominated the proliferation issues in its own capacity. This phenomenon may be explained by the fact that there is some obstacle in the dispute settlement clause itself: the arbitral clause in the CSA precludes the essential proliferation disputes as being able to be arbitrated, and the dispute settlement clause in the IAEA Statute covers no disputes possibly arising out of the CSA. Even if a better judicial procedure is to be developed, it is hard for them to function effectively because in the event of non-compliance with international adjudications, their enforcement needs support from external authority. On the other hand, the key to the settlement of nuclear proliferation disputes is the continued duty of performance, fulfillment of international obligations ever violated, to a large extent, implementation of international law, which also need legitimate coercive authority. These two elements may justify contemporary international practices in the settlement of proliferation disputes.

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  • 1 Australian National University (42건)
  • 2 연세대학교 (7건)
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