간행물

2009특집호

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수록정보
수록범위 : 0권0호(2009) |수록논문 수 : 7
2009특집호
0권0호(2009년 02월) 수록논문
최근 권호 논문
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1California Climate and Tree Growth: A Long-Term Analysis

저자 : Seung Jick Yoo , Yun Seop Hwang

발행기관 : 경희대학교 사회과학연구원 간행물 : 2009특집호 0권 0호 발행 연도 : 2009 페이지 : pp. 1-27 (27 pages)

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We are to detect and identify the stochastic process of the large scale treering data series spanning more than 1000 years. We have applied the various time series analysing methods such as ARIMA and State Space Model, but estimation of transition probabilities as well as unknown state from the known information are explored. In addition we apply same model, if possible, by varying sample period to show how the result of identification from the sample is sensitive to the inference period and is different from each other. We found that large scale treering data series show abrupt changes in states, justifying the use of time series analyses allowing abrupt state changes. The length of sample and the choice of the time series analysis are the critical in making inference about the past behavior of the series and in making forecast in the future. Researchers need to pay special attention in choice of the methods consistent with the purpose of the studdy.

2Extending Dunning`s Eclectic Paradigm toward a Synthetic Model of FDI Performance: An Empirical Evidence in China

저자 : Lin Cui , Chin Hak Kim , Li Hua Yang

발행기관 : 경희대학교 사회과학연구원 간행물 : 2009특집호 0권 0호 발행 연도 : 2009 페이지 : pp. 29-53 (25 pages)

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By reviewing the existing literature on FDI theories and FDI performance determinants, we find the necessity and possibility to develop a synthetic model to measure FDI performance. This model is not a simple combination of existing theories, but a reorganization of those theories arranged into a new theoretical framework. A logical connection between the MNC subsidiary`s ability to realize OLI advantages and the performance of FDI is found and important extensions to the OLI paradigm are made. The synthetic model is a split OLI paradigm by subcategorizing each of OLI into two elements, thereby the total of six elements. An empirical study of 13 FDI cases in China is conducted to test the model and the empirical evidences support the arguments of this new synthetic model.

3Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior: Some Evidence from the Stock Market in Korea

저자 : Seung Woog Kwag

발행기관 : 경희대학교 사회과학연구원 간행물 : 2009특집호 0권 0호 발행 연도 : 2009 페이지 : pp. 55-65 (11 pages)

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This paper presents some empirical analysis of analyst herding and optimism phenomena in the Korea stock market. Employing 11640 samples, I find the evidence suggest that analyst optimism is widespread across the stock market in Korea. Systematic herding behavior of analysts is also observed as analysts forecast earnings farther out into the future. For the 1988~2003 period, the mean IR unanimously decreases as the forecast period increases from the one-year to the two-year period. As observed in the US, as the forecast horizon lengthens, the forecast accuracy deteriorates.

4Debt Compliance Gaining Message Impact in the Presence of Favors

저자 : Sun Young Lee

발행기관 : 경희대학교 사회과학연구원 간행물 : 2009특집호 0권 0호 발행 연도 : 2009 페이지 : pp. 67-81 (15 pages)

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Under pregiving favors, two compliance gaining message strategies are possible: direct request or debt message. The study investigates the impact of those two compliance gaining messages and suggests explanations of the outcomes. This study employed a one-way independent group design. Two groups of participants were given candy as a favor before reading either a direct request or a debt compliance gaining message for a donation. A group received no candy as a favor and only had a direct request. As predicted, the results show that participants who received favors and direct requests complied more than both those who received favors and debt compliance gaining message, and those who received direct requests only. Debt compliance gaining message impose external pressure on targets causing them to view favor givers and the message negatively and, as a result, produce noncompliance.

5Six-Party Talks and Conflict Prevention and Management: Prerequisites Fulfilled?

저자 : Jae Woo Choo

발행기관 : 경희대학교 사회과학연구원 간행물 : 2009특집호 0권 0호 발행 연도 : 2009 페이지 : pp. 83-104 (22 pages)

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For the Six-party talks (SPT) to function as a conflict management and prevention measure (CPM), it must be institutionalized. Without institutionalization and any due process for confidence-building among the member states of SPT, it will be extremely difficult to expect whatever solution it generates, even on consensus basis, to effectively follow in practice. The Joint Statement issued at the conclusion of the fourth round of the talks in September, 2005 and the Initial Action agreement of February 13, or the February 13 agreement, in 2007would be no exception. There is already rising skepticism on the question on the SPT`s potential as a means to manage and prevent prospective conflicts stemming from North Korea including the current nuclear issue. In order to realize the Joint Statement and the 2.13 Agreement, the SPT needs to overcome its structural weakness so as to properly function as an instrumental body. Before indulging into blind optimism with evolutionary consequence of institutionalization, it is critical to examine if such prerequisites as ideas, ideation, identity, or 3I`s, and consensual norms exist among the members. It is imperative to do so because fundamental preconditions such as confidence and trust are absent in them. Against this background, the article first addresses how a consensus on the need for institutionalized multilateral security forum was reached by the SPT members via SPT process. The second part deals how this consensus gave rise to the development of so-called "3I`s" (ideas, ideation, and identity) and norms, offering a chance for SPT to evolve into a viable CPM measure by the fulfillment of these critical prerequisites. The article concludes by assessing the prospect of SPT evolving into CPM in lieu of such a regional arrangement.

6Social Determinants of Public Attitudes towards Science -An Analysis of U.S. General Social Surveys-

저자 : Hee Je Bak

발행기관 : 경희대학교 사회과학연구원 간행물 : 2009특집호 0권 0호 발행 연도 : 2009 페이지 : pp. 105-122 (18 pages)

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7The Application of "Social Capital" to the Effective Implementation of CDBG Program for Local Governments in the United States

저자 : Tae Young Kim

발행기관 : 경희대학교 사회과학연구원 간행물 : 2009특집호 0권 0호 발행 연도 : 2009 페이지 : pp. 123-134 (12 pages)

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