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한국금융연구원> 금융연구

금융연구 update

Journal of Money & Finance

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수록정보
수록범위 : 1권1호(1988)~32권3호(2018) |수록논문 수 : 436
금융연구
32권3호(2018년) 수록논문
최근 권호 논문
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KCI등재

1우리나라 금융의 적정성과 경제성장 효과

저자 : 김천구 ( Cheonkoo Kim ) , 박정수 ( Jungsoo Park )

발행기관 : 한국금융연구원 간행물 : 금융연구 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 1-36 (36 pages)

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본 연구는 금융심화가 적정수준을 초과하면 금융의 성장효과가 부정적일 수 있다는 과잉금융의 가능성을 우리나라 자료를 기초로 평가해 보았다. 우리나라는 금융산업의 규모적 측면에서는 과잉이라고는 보기 어렵지만 양적인 신용공여 측면에서는 적정수준을 넘어서서 금융으로 인한 경제성장의 긍정적인 효과가 반감될 가능성과 과잉금융의 징후를 확인할 수 있었다. 배분적 측면에서 금융이 가계부문과 저생산성 부문에 집중되고 있고 저생산성 부문을 확대하는데 기여하고 있는 점을 확인하였다. 정책적인 관점에서 보면 현재 우리나라 금융의 성장효과를 제고하고 금융의 효율성을 확보하기 위해서는 GDP 대비 신용공여의 과도한 확대를 방지하여 과잉금융을 제어할 수 있는 제도적 장치를 마련해야 한다. 또한 민간신용이 저생산성 부문에 집중되고 있는 구조적 원인들을 파악하고 이에 대한 개선책을 마련하는 것이 필요한 시점이다.


Recent studies have found that excessive finance can worsen the growth effects of finance. From this perspective, we have investigated the possibility of excessive finance or “too much finance” in Korea. In order to check the adequacy of Korean finance in relations to inverted-U hypothesis in banking and finance literature, we have provided overviews and trends of Korean finance and financial sector in multiple criteria. We have evaluated the adequacy of finance from quantitative perspective and also allocative efficiency perspective. Furthermore the influence of indirect finance on the real economy is analyzed based on firm-level panel data. Our findings show that index of financial deepening measured in terms of private credit to GDP ratio has reached 143% in 2016 and has entered the region where growth effect of finance is reducing. In terms of employment, high quality workers are attracted to the financial sector due to high wages. The share of workers has reached 3% which is regarded as the level maximizing the growth effect. The proportion of financial sector value-added is slightly over 5% which is somewhat higher than the average shares of OECD countries, but cannot be considered excessive. The gap between the wages of financial sector and those of the manufacturing sector is widening which is consistent with the global trend. In regards to the distribution of credit provision across industrial sectors to check allocative efficiency, bank loans are becoming more and more concentrated in low productivity household sector rather than coporate sector. The household loans to GDP ratio in Korea is higher than those of most OECD economies. In terms of firm size, indirect finance is concentrated in small-sized firms with employees less than 50. The value-added share of small-sized firms is only 8%, but the indirect finance share of small-sized firms comprises of 27%. We have found that most of these small-sized firms belong to low productivity sectors such as real estates, transportation and warehousing, wholesale and retail sales. In order to evaluate the effect of indirect finance on firm growth, we have provided empirical analyses based on Korean firm-level panel data. The empirical results show that the loans to firms listed in Korean Stock Exchange which are mostly large and established do not have meaningful influence on firm growth. However the loans to firms listed in KOSDAQ and to externally-audited firms have significant positive impact on the respective firms' value-added growth. The impact of finance is greater after the 2008 global financial crisis. The growth effect of finance is greater for the small-sized firms with employees less than 50. However, since these small firms are concentrated in low productivity sectors, the finance in Korea is causing low productivity sectors to expand. In conclusion, the Korean financial industry cannot be considered to be excessive in terms of size. However, from the credit provision perspective, we have found some signs that the level of financial deepening may have exceeded the adequate level and that the positive growth effect of finance is deteriorating. From the policy perspective, it is necessary to establish a system to control excessive finance to enhance the growth effect and efficiency of finance. Furthermore, it is essential to find out the structural causes for the concentration of finance in low productivity sectors and prepare steps and measures to remedy the problem.

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2금융발전이 경제안정에 미치는 효과

저자 : 강경훈 ( Kyeong-hoon Kang ) , 배영수 ( Young-soo Bae )

발행기관 : 한국금융연구원 간행물 : 금융연구 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 37-61 (25 pages)

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금융발전은 경제안정에 긍정적인 효과와 부정적인 효과를 모두 미칠 수 있으며 금융발전-경제변동성 간의 관계에 대한 실증분석 결과 역시 뚜렷한 결론을 내리기가 어렵거나 U자형의 비선형관계가 나타나기도 한다. 이 연구는 금융발전과 경제안정의 관계에 대한 선행연구들을 광범위하게 검토하는 한편 한국의 금융발전과 경제안정 간 관계에 대해 분석한다. 한국의 시계열자료를 바탕으로 분석한 결과 한국에서는 금융발전이 경제안정을 가져온다는 결과를 얻었다. U자형과 같은 비선형 관계는 나타나지 않았으며 1997년 외환위기 이후 금융발전이 경제안정을 제고하는 효과가 강해졌음을 발견하였다. 이러한 분석 결과에 따르면 한국의 경우 앞으로도 계속해서 금융발전을 적극 도모할 필요가 있음을 알 수 있다. 그러나 2007~2009 글로벌 금융위기에서 알 수 있듯이 과도한 금융발전 또는 금융과잉의 경우 경제변동성을 확대하거나 금융위기 가능성을 높일 수도 있음에 유의할 필요가 있다.


There are various paths through which financial deepening affect economic stability. Firstly, a developed financial system can enhance economic stability by providing tools of investment diversification, risk management and insurance functions to firms, households and the government. On the other hand, as the financial sector grows, the volatility of the economy may increase as the leverage of the overall economy grows and the risk seeking of economic agents expands. Theoretically, these two opposite causal relations between financial development and economic stability are possible. In addition, empirical test results are also difficult to draw clear conclusions about the relationhip. According to recent empirical studies such as Sahay et al. (2015), there can be a nonlinear relationship between financial development and economic volatility. This paper summarizes the related previous literature as the first step to study the relationship. Next, based on the Korean time series data, empirical tests are made on the relationship between financial development and economic stability in Korea. The methodology of the empirical analysis is similar to Cermeno et al. (2016) and Darrat et al. (2005). Variables representing financial development are the ratios of M2/GDP, Liquidity Aggregates of Financial Institutions/GDP, Liquidity Aggregates/ GDP, and Total Loans/GDP. These variables do not reflect the qualitative aspects of financial development. They reflect only the quantitative aspects. It is not easy, however, to measure the qualitative levels of financial development for a single country. It is also difficult to track and compare the changes in qualitative aspects of financial development over time, and thus this paper does not include qualitative variables. The variable for the economic stability is the conditional variance of the real GDP growth rate. As the first empirical test to examine the effect of financial development on economic volatility in Korea, we add variables for financial development to a typical ARMA(p1,q1)-GARCH(p2,q2) model. The test results show financial development has a positive effect on economic stability. In general, as the economy grows and its size increases, the growth rate declines and its volatility declines. In this case, so the decline in conditional variance may be due to the growth of the economy itself, not to the financial development. In order to check this problem, we estimate a model that includes the economic growth rate as an exogenous variable. As a result, it is not too much to conclude that even if the economic growth rate is controlled, financial development generally has positive effects on economic stability. Moreover, in order to test the non-linearity of the U-shaped relationship between financial development and economic stability, we perform a regression analysis which includes squares of the variables for financial development. The test results show that the coefficients of the squares of the variables for financial development are not statistically significant. Therefore, there is no reason to believe that the Korean financial sector has developed too much to hamper economic stability. By the way, it is necessary to examine whether there has been a structural change in the relationship between financial development and economic stability during the 1997 financial crisis and the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. We add the dummy variables for the 1997 crisis and the 2007-2009 crisis period. The results suggest that financial development has a positive effect on economic stability for the whole period, mainly because of the effect in the period after the 1997 crisis. However, unlike the 1997 crisis, the dummy variables corresponding to the period after the 2007-2009 financial crisis do not show statistically significant results. The implication of the empirical analyses is that in the case of Korea, it is necessary to continuously pursue financial development in the future. However, as can be seen from the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, too excessive financial development may increase economic volatility or the possibility of a financial crisis. Considering these points, it is necessary to make efforts to maintain economic stability and lower the possibility of a financial crisis, while constantly promoting financial development.

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3금융발전이 소득불평등에 미치는 효과: 한국경제에 대한 시사점

저자 : 신관호 ( Kwanho Shin )

발행기관 : 한국금융연구원 간행물 : 금융연구 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 63-100 (38 pages)

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본 논문은 한국의 소득불평등 변화양상을 개괄한 후, 민간신용 및 주식시장의 크기가 GDP에서 차지하는 비중을 금융발전의 측정치로 삼아 금융발전이 소득불평등에 미치는 영향을 분석하고, OECD 국가들의 금융발전 양상과 한국을 비교하여 한국에 대한 시사점을 찾는 것을 목적으로 한다. 본고에서는 Park and Shin(2017)의 발견, 즉 금융발전이 지나친 경우 소득불평등을 악화시킬 수 있음을 재확인하였다. 특히 OECD 국가들을 소득불평등이 악화된 국가 그룹과 그렇지 않은 국가 그룹으로 나누어 이들 국가들의 금융발전 양상을 비교 분석한 결과, 소득불평등이 악화된 국가들에서 양적인 금융발전이 보다 빠르게 진행되고 있는 것을 확인하였다. 이러한 발견들을 바탕으로 본 논문은 정책적 시사점을 제공하였다.


After examining the evolution of income inequality in Korea, we investigate the effects financial development have on income inequality. In past literature Korea was exemplified as a country that, despite its rapid economic growth, did not experience worsening of income inequality. However, we observe that ever since 1994, when rapid economic growth was already over, Korea has started to experience increases in income inequality. We measure financial development using the credit-to GDP ratio and the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio. Income inequality is measured by the Gini index and the top 1 percent income share. Although we use a more extended data set, we find that excessive financial development aggravates income inequality, which is consistent to the findings of Park and Shin (2017). Since Korea has already passed the turning point at which more financial development may aggravate income inequality, caution is warranted to prevent further harmful effects of financial development on income inequality. We divide OECD countries into two groups based on whether the last year's Gini index of disposable income is greater than 30 (Group 1) or not (Group 2). In general, countries in Group 1's income equality deteriorated more rapidly than of those in Group 2. At the same time, we also observe that countries in Group 1 experience financial development at a quicker pace. Korea's current income inequality is not as severe, but worsens almost at the same speed, as that of most countries belonging to Group 1. We provide policy suggestions based on our findings at the end.

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4글로벌 금융위기 전·후 외국인의 채권투자 결정요인 변화 분석: 한국의 사례

저자 : 유복근 ( Bok-keun Yu )

발행기관 : 한국금융연구원 간행물 : 금융연구 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 101-128 (28 pages)

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본 연구는 포트폴리오 선택 및 이자율평형 이론에 근거하여 수익성 요인인 차익거래유인, 글로벌 리스크 및 국가 리스크를 중심으로 글로벌 금융위기 전·후 우리나라에 대한 외국인의 채권투자결정요인 변화 여부를 회귀분석과 분산분해를 통해 살펴보았다. 실증분석 결과, 위기 이전 기간(2004~2007년)에는 차익거래유인이, 위기 이후 기간(2010~2017년)에는 리스크 요인이 외국인의 채권순유입을 결정하는 데 보다 중요한 역할을 한 것으로 나타났다. 또한 위기 이후 기간에는 회귀모형의 설명력이 낮아져 차익거래유인과 리스크 요인 이외 변수의 영향이 커졌음을 시사한다. 한편 글로벌 금융위기 전·후 외국인 채권투자 결정요인의 변화는 우리나라에 대한 외국인의 투자 행태 및 리스크에 대한 선호 변화 등에 기인한 것으로 보인다. 상기의 분석결과를 종합해 볼 때, 향후 우리나라에 대한 외국인 채권투자자금 유출입과 관련하여 차익거래유인을 점검하는 동시에 글로벌 리스크 변화를 면밀하게 모니터링하는 한편 국가 리스크 요인이 현실화되지 않도록 노력할 필요성이 제기된다.


The policy rates of Korea and the US reversed in March 2018 as the US Fed continued to push ahead with monetary policy normalization. This led to a growing interest in the impact of the narrowing and reversal of interest rate differentials on capital flows. It is generally known that capital flows are determined not only by profit-related factors like arbitrage opportunities and risk factors such as global and country risks, but also by differences in economic growth rates across countries, and macroeconomic, financial and FX market conditions. The policy rates of Korea and the US reversed in March 2018 as the US Fed continued to push ahead with monetary policy normalization. This led to a growing interest in the impact of the narrowing and reversal of interest rate differentials on capital flows. It is generally known that capital flows are determined not only by profit-related factors like arbitrage opportunities and risk factors such as global and country risks, but also by differences in economic growth rates across countries, and macroeconomic, financial and FX market conditions. This study employs regression analysis and variance decomposition based on portfolio selection and interest rate parity theories to examine whether the determinants of foreigners' bond investment in Korea, such as arbitrage opportunities as well as global and country risks, have changed since the global financial crisis. The empirical results show that arbitrage opportunities played a more important role in the pre-crisis period (2004~2007), while risk factors have been more influential in the postcrisis period (2010~2017). In addition, the explanatory power of the regression model decreases after the crisis, which implies that the influence of variables other than arbitrage opportunities and risk factors may have increased. These changes in the determinants of foreigners' bond investment before and after the global financial crisis seem to be the result of changes in foreigners' investment behavior and their risk preferences. It has been found that after the crisis the source of foreigner's bond investment in Korea shifted from private funds toward public ones, with the maturities lengthened to the medium or long term. Another reason may be that the risk management of global private bond investors for their Korean bond investment has strengthened after the crisis. These results show that there is a need for an examination of arbitrage opportunities related to foreigners' bond investment flows in and out of Korea, and for close monitoring of changing global risks, while efforts should also be made to ensure that sovereign risk does not materialize.

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5크라우드펀딩 자금조달의 유효성 분석

저자 : 김영도 ( Young Do Kim ) , 정현석 ( Hyun-seok Jeong )

발행기관 : 한국금융연구원 간행물 : 금융연구 32권 3호 발행 연도 : 2018 페이지 : pp. 129-167 (39 pages)

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혁신형 창업기업을 위한 대표적인 자금조달 수단으로 증권형 크라우드펀딩(crowdfunding) 제도가 2016년 국내에 제도화되었다. 증권형 크라우드펀딩은 기업이 온라인 플랫폼을 통해 증권을 발행하고, 다수의 소액투자자가 이에 투자하여 자금을 조달하는 방식을 의미한다. 국내에서 증권형 크라우드펀딩이 본격적으로 제도화된 이후 지난 2년 동안 괄목할만한 성장세를 보여 왔다. 투자자관점에서는 투자자가 빠르게 늘어나고 있으며, 이에 따라 정부가 투자한도 확대 등 규제완화를 계획하고 있기 때문에 당분간 이러한 성장세는 지속될 것으로 예상된다. 본 연구는 어떤 기업의 특성이 지난 2년간 진행된 크라우드펀딩의 성공에 영향을 미치는지 살펴보고, 이어 크라우드펀딩성공이 기업의 성과 개선에 영향을 미치는지를 실증분석을 통해 살펴보고자 하였다. 우선 크라우드펀딩의 성공여부가 과거의 재무적 요인에 의해 결정되지 않는다는 점이 발견되었는데, 이는 크라우드펀딩이 과거의 성과보다는 미래의 성장가능성을 보고 펀딩이 이루어진다는 점에서 긍정적인 효과라고 판단된다. 또한 전체적으로 자금조달에 성공한 기업은 기업의 규모는 성장하고, 매출활동도 크게 개선되는 등 일부 긍정적인 영향이 관찰되었다. 향후 증권형 크라우드펀딩과 관련된 정책방안을 고민할 경우 펀딩 성공이라는 그 자체보다는 지원된 자금이 기업내부의 혁신과 성장을 위해 효율적으로 사용되어 궁극적으로는 사업화에 이르는 과정까지의 지원으로 한 단계 진화토록하는 지원방안을 고려할 필요가 있다.


In 2016, the equity-type crowdfunding was introduced and institutionalized in Korea as a major fund-raising tool for innovative start-ups. Equity-type crowdfunding is where a company offers and issues securities for financing via an online platform, and many small investors come to invest in them. In fact, since crowdfunding makes it possible for start-ups to raise fund from the public based on their future growth potential rather than past performance, it could be a major funding source for domestic venture and startup companies. Also, crowdfunding could be a first step in creating a healthy venture and entrepreneurial eco-system, playing a pivotal role as start-ups supporting system. Over the past two years as of the institutionalization of equity-type crowdfunding in Korea, it has seen remarkable growth. In terms of investors, the number of participating investors are growing rapidly. Also, the growth is expected to continue for a time being as policy authority has plans to deregulate regulations regarding equity-based crowdfunding by expanding investment limits, for instance. In particular, the current Korean government policy stance to promote the naissance and development of early innovators is expected to greatly contribute to the revitalization of equity-type crowdfunding. All these given, this study examines whether the characteristics of a firm have been a variable for the success of crowdfunding conducted over the last two years. Then, this study also examines whether the success of crowdfunding affects the performance of the firm. In this paper, we present several meaningful findings. First, there were no clear evidence in difference of financial characteristics between the successful and failed firms. Since crowdfunding is a system that assesses the future of corporations or projects rather than their past performance, it seems that some of the initial intention of Korea's equity-type crowdfunding's introduction is taking place. In addition, this study analyzes whether firms' financial indices in financial statements are improved after crowdfunding compared to those firms which failed to procure. We suggest that there were some positive impacts on companies that were successful in funding, as a whole. Specifically, the size of firms with successful crowdfundings are growing, and their sales activities are also significantly improving. Yet, the impact of crowdfunding on substantial corporate performance is still ambiguous with a few exceptions. However, this ambiguity could be coming from the fact that crowdfunding is still at an early stage. Therefore, we think that future discussion needs to be focused on long-term achievements rather than recent short-term results. In the future, if further policy measures on equity-type crowdfunding are considered in a way to improve funding condition of start-ups and SMEs, it is necessary to promote the support measures of crowdfunding. However, future discussion for crowdfunding support measures should look a step further from just making the funding itself successful: Crowdfunding should be a supporting system for the efficient use of funding for firms' internal innovation, growth and ultimately commercialization, and so on.

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