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한국부동산분석학회> 부동산학연구

부동산학연구 update

Journal of KREAA

  • : 한국부동산분석학회
  • : 사회과학분야  >  경제학
  • : KCI등재
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  • : 연속간행물
  • : 계간
  • : 1229-4403
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수록정보
18권1호(2012) |수록논문 수 : 7
간행물 제목
18권1호(2012년) 수록논문
권호별 수록 논문
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KCI등재

1서울시 오피스 시장의 균형에 관한 연구

저자 : 양영준 ( Young Jun Yang ) , 임병준 ( Byeong Jun Rhim )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 18권 1호 발행 연도 : 2012 페이지 : pp. 5-24 (20 pages)

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DiPasquale-Wheaton Four Quadrant Model(4QM) describes long term equilibrium in the real estate market under the division of the real estate market into two markets: the property market and the asset market. 4QM would be utilized as a decision-making tool for Seoul office investment and management, if we prove it is still reasonable for Seoul office market. Through the Granger`s casualty test under the 4QM hypothesis, it is proved that Seoul office rent level affects Seoul office price, and the latter affects the level of Seoul commercial construction. And the economic growth rate affects Seoul office rent level, and the market interest rate affects Seoul office price. As a result of proceeding impulse-response analysis and variance decomposition analysis with vector error correlation model, it proves that the impulse of Seoul office rent level has a positive effect on Seoul office price generally, and impulse of Seoul office price has a negative effect on the level of Seoul commercial construction contrary to 4QM. It also proves that the impulse of economic growth rate has a positive effect on Seoul office rent level, and the impulse of market interest rate has a negative effect on Seoul office price.

KCI등재

2주택정책의 정책시차에 관한 실증연구

저자 : 조태진 ( Tae Jin Jo ) , 김동중 ( Dong Joong Kim )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 18권 1호 발행 연도 : 2012 페이지 : pp. 25-41 (17 pages)

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The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of housing policy which is uniformly implemented all over the country and to suggest a scheme to improve the effectiveness of housing policy. Unlike the previous studies, this study applied a panel-data analysis, dividing the whole sample (fifteen cities and provinces) into four types of clusters on the basis of the variation rates of housing prices. We have found several results by this study. First, housing policy was not effective to housing price because the housing price was not effected as the government intended. second, housing policy was effective to housing price In the case of Using the policy lag than not using the policy lag in the housing policy. On these grounds, this study suggests that the government has to implement Housing Policy correctly and timely.

KCI등재

3주택개발 프로젝트 파이낸싱 사업의 참여기관별 리스크 영향요인 분석

저자 : 이대종 ( Dae Jong Lee ) , 임지희 ( Ji Hee Im ) , 서은영 ( Eun Young Seo ) , 원제무 ( Jai Mu Won )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 18권 1호 발행 연도 : 2012 페이지 : pp. 43-56 (14 pages)

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The deterioration of domestic real estate market following the global financial crisis led to the insolvency of project financing, thus affecting construction industry as a whole. The deterioration emerged as an urgent thing, as it also expanded to financial sectors. This study is to define risk factors in relation to house-development project financing by phase and to establish the regression model using factors that might determine the fate of a business by objectively and systematically deriving identifiable risk factors that are seen from the perspectives of constructor, promoter, and financial institutions. With the outcomes, we compared and analyzed by participant and phase. As the result of analyzing outcomes, 18 risk factors are found as significant and by participant, it is found that constructors have 12 factors, promoters have 8 factors, and financial institutes have 11 factors. The major factors for constructors include a financial status risk and the rise in business and construction costs, those for promoters include a risk of securing construction site and location selection, and those for financial institutes include a risk of raising funds and a risk caused by constructors. The common factors to the three participants are a market environment risk, a location environment risk, and a financial status risk. They are fundamental to successful promotion of a business. The increase in the attention to risk management, as market went through the global financial crisis, is construed as the changed result of popularity.

KCI등재

4공모형 PF사업 문제 유형화를 통한 실물옵션 가치평가법의 적용에 관한 연구

저자 : 김기현 ( Ki Hyun Kim ) , 이상경 ( Sang Kyeong Lee )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 18권 1호 발행 연도 : 2012 페이지 : pp. 57-71 (15 pages)

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The purpose of this paper is to find problems of mixed-use development based on project financing competition and to test real options valuation as the means of lowering risks. Most of development projects involve many risks in assuming market situations but the traditional discounted cash flow method that cannot reflect future change is applied to valuing a development project. To compensate defaults of DCF method, real options method utilizes various options to correspond to changes of market situations. This paper can be summarized as follows. A content analysis for newspaper articles is executed to find problems of mixed-use development projects, and problems are divided into 11 types. Binomial option models, such as option to abandon, option to defer and option to contract are applied to 5 types among 11 types. Simulations are executed a development project in the vicinity of Gwangmyung station. Project values are estimated and those are greater than the original NPV. This paper shows that the probability of the success of a development project more increases when real options are applied to the agreement.

KCI등재

5AHP를 활용한 복합개발사업 재원조달의 평가항목 중요도 분석

저자 : 김진 ( Jin Kim )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 18권 1호 발행 연도 : 2012 페이지 : pp. 73-91 (19 pages)

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The purpose of this study is to identify the risk factors of mixed-use development (MXD) projects then suggest a criterion to evaluate their financeability. The study surveyed 54 experts in the areas of investment banking, construction, project management as well as academia and asked what kinds of risk factors are most influential to finance a MXD project then analyzed the responses by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) technique to prepare a criterion. ``Financial Feasibility & Security`` group seems most important among the risk categories then ``Project Entity,`` ``Project Risk,`` ``Contract Enforcement,`` ``Market Risk`` and ``Commercial Risk`` groups follow in sequence. We find that submarket condition is the most crucial risk factor in ``Market Risk`` category. Similarly, building permission and construction in ``Project Risk,`` the marketability of presale items in ``Commercial Risk,`` the credit level of construction companies in ``Project Entity,`` the binding level of equity contribution in ``Contract Enforcement`` and the credit enforcement by construction companies in ``Financial Stability & Security`` look most significant in each category. Under the real estate project finance structure in Korea which excessively relies on presale system and hyper leveraged capital structure, the financeability appears to be decided by the credit of construction companies and their credit enhancement. We suggest that one lump sum MXD project be resized into financeable mini projects and/or phased in a series of several prescheduled stages. Also, it is worth to consider the transition of cash inflows from the current presale system to the income producing structure in a long-term basis or attract property investors and master lessees in advance to hedge the commercial risk.

KCI등재

6국공유지 무상양도를 활용한 재개발사업의 공공지원 방안

저자 : 장재일 ( Jae Il Jang )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 18권 1호 발행 연도 : 2012 페이지 : pp. 93-106 (14 pages)

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The scope of the gratuitous public land conveyance in Urban and Living Environment Improvement Act is not clear, so there are many administrative litigation. And it is pointed out that the gratuitous conveyance system is unfair. Therefore, this study suggest that public sector use the gratuitous conveyance system as public financial support for redevelopment area and the scale of the support be determined by feasibility analysis. In other words, public land in redevelopment area should be gratuitously conveyed to a certain feasibility level, and remaining public land should be used as another means of supporting redevelopment project. To do that, the feasibility of redevelopment areas should be objectively measured and compared. So it is required to standardize construction costs and to equate arbitrary determination factors(Landowner`s Housing Price Rate, Other Factors of Value Determination Factors in Property Appraisal) respectively. Also in order to use the gratuitous conveyance system as public financial support, 1) we should change the law and use the public land in redevelopment area as means of comprehensive public support, and 2) we should appraise official land price more strictly from the time of determining a Renewal District.

KCI등재

7은행과 저축은행의 부동산 PF 대출특성 비교분석 -기한의 이익상실과 대손충당금을 중심으로-

저자 : 이갑섭 ( Gab Seob Lee ) , 이현석 ( Hyun Seok Lee )

발행기관 : 한국부동산분석학회 간행물 : 부동산학연구 18권 1호 발행 연도 : 2012 페이지 : pp. 107-121 (15 pages)

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This paper is to analyze the difference of loan characteristics and the credit risk factors for real estate project financing loans("PF Loans") between commercial banks and savings banks. PF loans of commercial banks have been invested mainly in capital regions with enhanced credit quality pledged by top-ranking construction companies, and thereby maintaining low default rate and reserving enough allowances for bad debts. On the other hand, PF loans of savings banks have mostly been invested in non-capital regions and extended as a way of additional loans to small-to-mid size construction companies` construction loans, and thereby showing high default rate while accumulating not enough allowances for bad debts. This study addresses these issues and performs comparative analysis on different characteristics of PF loans of commercial banks and savings banks. As the result of comparative analysis, this paper suggests several measures such as reducing the non-performing loans and enhancing the credit quality of project financing loans.

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